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Correct answer: 6
Step-by-Step Solution:
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Identify the Probability Distribution Let
nbe the minimum number of missiles that have to be fired. LetXbe the random variable representing the number of successful hits. Each missile firing is an independent Bernoulli trial. The probability of a successful hit (success) is given asp = 0.75 = 3/4. The probability of a miss (failure) isq = 1 - p = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25 = 1/4. Therefore,Xfollows a binomial distribution with parametersnandp, denoted asX ~ B(n, p). The probability of exactlyksuccesses inntrials is given by the binomial probability formula: -
Formulate the Condition The target is completely destroyed if there are at least three successful hits. This means . The probability of completely destroying the target must be NOT less than 0.95. This can be written as:
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Use the Complement Rule for Easier Calculation Calculating directly involves a sum with a variable number of terms (
P(X=3) + P(X=4) + ... + P(X=n)). It is simpler to calculate the probability of the complementary event,P(X < 3), which isP(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2). The condition can be rewritten as: -
Calculate the Probabilities for X=0, 1, 2 Using the binomial formula with
p=3/4andq=1/4: -
Set up the Inequality and Test Values of n Substitute the expressions back into the inequality: We need to find the smallest integer
n(where ) that satisfies this inequality. We can test values ofn.-
For n = 3: The condition becomes . , which is less than 0.95. So,
n=3is not sufficient. -
For n = 4: , which is less than 0.95. So,
n=4is not sufficient. -
For n = 5: Let's check .
P(X < 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)Since0.1035 > 0.05, the condition is not met forn=5. -
For n = 6: Let's check .
P(X < 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)Since , the condition is satisfied forn=6.
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Conclusion The smallest integer value of
nfor which the probability of at least three hits is not less than 0.95 is 6.
Final Answer: The minimum number of missiles that have to be fired is 6.
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