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Probability question

2020 · Shift 2 · Q20
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Probability question

2020 · Shift 2 · Q20

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+3 / −1
The probability that a missile hits a target successfully is 0.75. In order to destroy the target completely, at least three successful hits are required. Then the minimum number of missiles that have to be fired so that the probability of completely destroying the target is NOT less than 0.95, is ............
Numerical answer
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Correct answer: 6

Step-by-Step Solution:

  1. Identify the Probability Distribution Let n be the minimum number of missiles that have to be fired. Let X be the random variable representing the number of successful hits. Each missile firing is an independent Bernoulli trial. The probability of a successful hit (success) is given as p = 0.75 = 3/4. The probability of a miss (failure) is q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25 = 1/4. Therefore, X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p, denoted as X ~ B(n, p). The probability of exactly k successes in n trials is given by the binomial probability formula: P(X=k)=(nk)pkqn−kP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k}P(X=k)=(kn​)pkqn−k

  2. Formulate the Condition The target is completely destroyed if there are at least three successful hits. This means X≥3X \ge 3X≥3. The probability of completely destroying the target must be NOT less than 0.95. This can be written as: P(X≥3)≥0.95P(X \ge 3) \ge 0.95P(X≥3)≥0.95

  3. Use the Complement Rule for Easier Calculation Calculating P(X≥3)P(X \ge 3)P(X≥3) directly involves a sum with a variable number of terms (P(X=3) + P(X=4) + ... + P(X=n)). It is simpler to calculate the probability of the complementary event, P(X < 3), which is P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2). The condition P(X≥3)≥0.95P(X \ge 3) \ge 0.95P(X≥3)≥0.95 can be rewritten as: 1−P(X<3)≥0.951 - P(X < 3) \ge 0.951−P(X<3)≥0.95 P(X<3)≤1−0.95P(X < 3) \le 1 - 0.95P(X<3)≤1−0.95 P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)≤0.05P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) \le 0.05P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)≤0.05

  4. Calculate the Probabilities for X=0, 1, 2 Using the binomial formula with p=3/4 and q=1/4:

    • P(X=0)=(n0)(3/4)0(1/4)n=1⋅1⋅(1/4)n=(1/4)nP(X=0) = \binom{n}{0} (3/4)^0 (1/4)^n = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (1/4)^n = (1/4)^nP(X=0)=(0n​)(3/4)0(1/4)n=1⋅1⋅(1/4)n=(1/4)n
    • P(X=1)=(n1)(3/4)1(1/4)n−1=n⋅(3/4)⋅(4/1)⋅(1/4)n=3n(1/4)nP(X=1) = \binom{n}{1} (3/4)^1 (1/4)^{n-1} = n \cdot (3/4) \cdot (4/1) \cdot (1/4)^n = 3n (1/4)^nP(X=1)=(1n​)(3/4)1(1/4)n−1=n⋅(3/4)⋅(4/1)⋅(1/4)n=3n(1/4)n
    • P(X=2)=(n2)(3/4)2(1/4)n−2=n(n−1)2⋅(9/16)⋅(16/1)⋅(1/4)n=9n(n−1)2(1/4)nP(X=2) = \binom{n}{2} (3/4)^2 (1/4)^{n-2} = \frac{n(n-1)}{2} \cdot (9/16) \cdot (16/1) \cdot (1/4)^n = \frac{9n(n-1)}{2} (1/4)^nP(X=2)=(2n​)(3/4)2(1/4)n−2=2n(n−1)​⋅(9/16)⋅(16/1)⋅(1/4)n=29n(n−1)​(1/4)n
  5. Set up the Inequality and Test Values of n Substitute the expressions back into the inequality: (1/4)n+3n(1/4)n+9n(n−1)2(1/4)n≤0.05(1/4)^n + 3n(1/4)^n + \frac{9n(n-1)}{2}(1/4)^n \le 0.05(1/4)n+3n(1/4)n+29n(n−1)​(1/4)n≤0.05 (1/4)n[1+3n+9n(n−1)2]≤0.05(1/4)^n \left[ 1 + 3n + \frac{9n(n-1)}{2} \right] \le 0.05(1/4)n[1+3n+29n(n−1)​]≤0.05 (1/4)n[2+6n+9n2−9n2]≤0.05(1/4)^n \left[ \frac{2 + 6n + 9n^2 - 9n}{2} \right] \le 0.05(1/4)n[22+6n+9n2−9n​]≤0.05 (1/4)n[9n2−3n+22]≤0.05(1/4)^n \left[ \frac{9n^2 - 3n + 2}{2} \right] \le 0.05(1/4)n[29n2−3n+2​]≤0.05 We need to find the smallest integer n (where n≥3n \ge 3n≥3) that satisfies this inequality. We can test values of n.

    • For n = 3: The condition P(X≥3)≥0.95P(X \ge 3) \ge 0.95P(X≥3)≥0.95 becomes P(X=3)≥0.95P(X=3) \ge 0.95P(X=3)≥0.95. P(X=3)=(33)(3/4)3(1/4)0=(27/64)=0.421875P(X=3) = \binom{3}{3}(3/4)^3(1/4)^0 = (27/64) = 0.421875P(X=3)=(33​)(3/4)3(1/4)0=(27/64)=0.421875, which is less than 0.95. So, n=3 is not sufficient.

    • For n = 4: P(X≥3)=P(X=3)+P(X=4)=(43)(3/4)3(1/4)1+(44)(3/4)4(1/4)0P(X \ge 3) = P(X=3) + P(X=4) = \binom{4}{3}(3/4)^3(1/4)^1 + \binom{4}{4}(3/4)^4(1/4)^0P(X≥3)=P(X=3)+P(X=4)=(34​)(3/4)3(1/4)1+(44​)(3/4)4(1/4)0 =4⋅(27/64)⋅(1/4)+1⋅(81/256)=108/256+81/256=189/256≈0.738= 4 \cdot (27/64) \cdot (1/4) + 1 \cdot (81/256) = 108/256 + 81/256 = 189/256 \approx 0.738=4⋅(27/64)⋅(1/4)+1⋅(81/256)=108/256+81/256=189/256≈0.738, which is less than 0.95. So, n=4 is not sufficient.

    • For n = 5: Let's check P(X<3)≤0.05P(X < 3) \le 0.05P(X<3)≤0.05. P(X < 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) =(1/4)5[1+3(5)+9(5)(4)2]=(1/1024)[1+15+90]=106/1024≈0.1035= (1/4)^5 [1 + 3(5) + \frac{9(5)(4)}{2}] = (1/1024) [1 + 15 + 90] = 106/1024 \approx 0.1035=(1/4)5[1+3(5)+29(5)(4)​]=(1/1024)[1+15+90]=106/1024≈0.1035 Since 0.1035 > 0.05, the condition is not met for n=5.

    • For n = 6: Let's check P(X<3)≤0.05P(X < 3) \le 0.05P(X<3)≤0.05. P(X < 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) =(1/4)6[1+3(6)+9(6)(5)2]=(1/4096)[1+18+135]=154/4096= (1/4)^6 [1 + 3(6) + \frac{9(6)(5)}{2}] = (1/4096) [1 + 18 + 135] = 154/4096=(1/4)6[1+3(6)+29(6)(5)​]=(1/4096)[1+18+135]=154/4096 154/4096≈0.03759154/4096 \approx 0.03759154/4096≈0.03759 Since 0.03759≤0.050.03759 \le 0.050.03759≤0.05, the condition is satisfied for n=6.

  6. Conclusion The smallest integer value of n for which the probability of at least three hits is not less than 0.95 is 6.

Final Answer: The minimum number of missiles that have to be fired is 6.

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