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Probability question

2016 · Shift 1 · Q21
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Probability question

2016 · Shift 1 · Q21

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+3 / −1
A computer producing factory has only two plants T1{T_1}T1​ and T2.{T_2}.T2​. Plant T1{T_1}T1​ produces 202020% and plant T2{T_2}T2​ produces 808080% of the total computers produced. 777% of computers produced in the factory turn out to be defective. It is known that PPP(computer turns out to be defective given that it is produced in plant T1{T_1}T1​) =10P= 10P=10P(computer turns out to be defective given that it is produced in plant T2{T_2}T2​), where P(E)P(E)P(E) denotes the probability of an event EEE. A computer produced in the factory is randomly selected and it does not turn out to be defective. Then the probability that it is produced in plant T2{T_2}T2​ is
  1. A
    3673{{36} \over {73}}7336​
  2. B
    4779{{47} \over {79}}7947​
  3. C
    7893{{78} \over {93}}9378​
  4. D
    7583{{75} \over {83}}8375​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Define events

Let:

  • T1T_1T1​ = computer is produced in plant T1T_1T1​
  • T2T_2T2​ = computer is produced in plant T2T_2T2​
  • DDD = computer is defective
  • D‾\overline DD = computer is not defective

Given: P(T1)=0.2=15,P(T2)=0.8=45P(T_1)=0.2=\frac15, \qquad P(T_2)=0.8=\frac45P(T1​)=0.2=51​,P(T2​)=0.8=54​ P(D)=0.07=7100P(D)=0.07=\frac{7}{100}P(D)=0.07=1007​

Also, P(D∣T1)=10 P(D∣T2)P(D\mid T_1)=10\,P(D\mid T_2)P(D∣T1​)=10P(D∣T2​)


  1. Assume defect probabilities

Let P(D∣T2)=xP(D\mid T_2)=xP(D∣T2​)=x Then P(D∣T1)=10xP(D\mid T_1)=10xP(D∣T1​)=10x

Using total probability: P(D)=P(T1)P(D∣T1)+P(T2)P(D∣T2)P(D)=P(T_1)P(D\mid T_1)+P(T_2)P(D\mid T_2)P(D)=P(T1​)P(D∣T1​)+P(T2​)P(D∣T2​) So, 15(10x)+45(x)=7100\frac15(10x)+\frac45(x)=\frac{7}{100}51​(10x)+54​(x)=1007​

Simplify: 2x+45x=71002x+\frac45x=\frac{7}{100}2x+54​x=1007​ 145x=7100\frac{14}{5}x=\frac{7}{100}514​x=1007​ x=7100⋅514=140x=\frac{7}{100}\cdot\frac{5}{14}=\frac{1}{40}x=1007​⋅145​=401​

Hence, P(D∣T2)=140,P(D∣T1)=14P(D\mid T_2)=\frac{1}{40}, \qquad P(D\mid T_1)=\frac{1}{4}P(D∣T2​)=401​,P(D∣T1​)=41​


  1. Find non-defective probabilities

P(D‾∣T2)=1−140=3940P(\overline D\mid T_2)=1-\frac{1}{40}=\frac{39}{40}P(D∣T2​)=1−401​=4039​ P(D‾∣T1)=1−14=34P(\overline D\mid T_1)=1-\frac{1}{4}=\frac{3}{4}P(D∣T1​)=1−41​=43​

Also, P(D‾)=1−P(D)=1−7100=93100P(\overline D)=1-P(D)=1-\frac{7}{100}=\frac{93}{100}P(D)=1−P(D)=1−1007​=10093​


  1. Apply Bayes' theorem

We need: P(T2∣D‾)=P(T2)P(D‾∣T2)P(D‾)P(T_2\mid \overline D)=\frac{P(T_2)P(\overline D\mid T_2)}{P(\overline D)}P(T2​∣D)=P(D)P(T2​)P(D∣T2​)​

Substitute values: P(T2∣D‾)=45⋅394093100P(T_2\mid \overline D)=\frac{\frac45\cdot\frac{39}{40}}{\frac{93}{100}}P(T2​∣D)=10093​54​⋅4039​​

First simplify numerator: 45⋅3940=3950\frac45\cdot\frac{39}{40}=\frac{39}{50}54​⋅4039​=5039​

So, P(T2∣D‾)=3950⋅10093P(T_2\mid \overline D)=\frac{39}{50}\cdot\frac{100}{93}P(T2​∣D)=5039​⋅93100​ =7893=\frac{78}{93}=9378​

This can further reduce to 2631\frac{26}{31}3126​, but among the options it appears as: 7893\boxed{\frac{78}{93}}9378​​


  1. Check options
  • A: 3673\frac{36}{73}7336​ ❌
  • B: 4779\frac{47}{79}7947​ ❌
  • C: 7893\frac{78}{93}9378​ ✅
  • D: 7583\frac{75}{83}8375​ ❌

Therefore, the correct option is C.

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