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Probability question

2020 · Shift 2 · Q33
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Probability question

2020 · Shift 2 · Q33

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
Two fair dice, each with faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, are rolled together and the sum of the numbers on the faces is observed. This process is repeated till the sum is either a prime number or a perfect square. Suppose the sum turns out to be a perfect square before it turns out to be a prime number. If p is the probability that this perfect square is an odd number, then the value of 14p is ..........
Numerical answer
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: 8

  1. Possible stopping sums

When two fair dice are rolled, the sum can be from 222 to 121212.

We stop the process when the sum is either:

  • a prime number, or
  • a perfect square.

In the range 222 to 121212:

  • Prime sums: 2,3,5,7,112,3,5,7,112,3,5,7,11
  • Perfect square sums: 4,94,94,9

So the process continues until one of the sums in {2,3,4,5,7,9,11}\{2,3,4,5,7,9,11\}{2,3,4,5,7,9,11} appears.


  1. Interpretation of the condition

We are given that the process stops because a perfect square appears before any prime appears.

Thus, among the stopping sums, the first one observed is either 444 or 999.

We need: p=P(odd perfect square∣perfect square occurs before prime)p=P(\text{odd perfect square} \mid \text{perfect square occurs before prime})p=P(odd perfect square∣perfect square occurs before prime)

Since the only odd perfect square here is 999, this becomes p=P(9∣first among {2,3,4,5,7,9,11} is a square)p=P(9 \mid \text{first among }\{2,3,4,5,7,9,11\}\text{ is a square})p=P(9∣first among {2,3,4,5,7,9,11} is a square)

That is, p=P(first stopping sum is 9)P(first stopping sum is 4 or 9)p=\frac{P(\text{first stopping sum is }9)}{P(\text{first stopping sum is }4\text{ or }9)}p=P(first stopping sum is 4 or 9)P(first stopping sum is 9)​


  1. Key idea: geometric waiting with relative probabilities

On each roll:

  • If the sum is one of {2,3,4,5,7,9,11}\{2,3,4,5,7,9,11\}{2,3,4,5,7,9,11}, the process stops.
  • Otherwise, it repeats.

Therefore, conditional on a stopping sum occurring, the probability that it is a particular stopping sum is proportional to its one-roll probability.

So, p=P(sum =9)P(sum =4)+P(sum =9)p=\frac{P(\text{sum }=9)}{P(\text{sum }=4)+P(\text{sum }=9)}p=P(sum =4)+P(sum =9)P(sum =9)​

because we are conditioning on the event that the stopping sum is a perfect square.


  1. Compute one-roll probabilities

Number of outcomes for sum 444: (1,3),(2,2),(3,1)(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)(1,3),(2,2),(3,1) So, P(4)=336P(4)=\frac{3}{36}P(4)=363​

Number of outcomes for sum 999: (3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3) So, P(9)=436P(9)=\frac{4}{36}P(9)=364​

Hence, p=4/363/36+4/36=47p=\frac{4/36}{3/36+4/36}=\frac{4}{7}p=3/36+4/364/36​=74​


  1. Find 14p14p14p

14p=14⋅47=814p=14\cdot \frac{4}{7}=814p=14⋅74​=8


  1. Comparison with stored answer

Our derived answer is 888, which matches the stored correct answer.

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