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Probability question

2019 · Shift 1 · Q28
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  5. /2019 · Shift 1 · Q28

Probability question

2019 · Shift 1 · Q28

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMultiple correct+4 / −1
There are three bags B1, B2 and B3. The bag B1 contains 5 red and 5 green balls, B2 contains 3 red and 5 green balls, and B3 contains 5 red and 3 green balls. Bags B1, B2 and B3 have probabilities 310{3 \over {10}}103​, 310{3 \over {10}}103​ and 410{4 \over {10}}104​ respectively of being chosen. A bag is selected at random and a ball is chosen at random from the bag. Then which of the following options is/are correct?
  1. A
    Probability that the chosen ball is green, given that the selected bag is B3, equals 38{3 \over 8}83​.
  2. B
    Probability that the selected bag is B3, given that the chosen ball is green, equals 513{5 \over 13}135​.
  3. C
    Probability that the chosen ball is green equals 3980{39 \over 80}8039​.
  4. D
    Probability that the selected bag is B3 and the chosen ball is green equals 310{3 \over 10}103​.
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A, C

  1. Given data

Let GGG denote the event that the chosen ball is green.

The bags are chosen with probabilities: P(B1)=310,P(B2)=310,P(B3)=410P(B_1)=\frac{3}{10},\quad P(B_2)=\frac{3}{10},\quad P(B_3)=\frac{4}{10}P(B1​)=103​,P(B2​)=103​,P(B3​)=104​

Composition of bags:

  • B1B_1B1​: 555 red, 555 green ⇒P(G∣B1)=510=12\Rightarrow P(G\mid B_1)=\frac{5}{10}=\frac12⇒P(G∣B1​)=105​=21​
  • B2B_2B2​: 333 red, 555 green ⇒P(G∣B2)=58\Rightarrow P(G\mid B_2)=\frac{5}{8}⇒P(G∣B2​)=85​
  • B3B_3B3​: 555 red, 333 green ⇒P(G∣B3)=38\Rightarrow P(G\mid B_3)=\frac{3}{8}⇒P(G∣B3​)=83​

  1. Check Option A

Option A states: P(G∣B3)=38P(G\mid B_3)=\frac38P(G∣B3​)=83​

From the composition of B3B_3B3​, this is true.

So, A is correct.


  1. Check Option C: total probability of getting a green ball

Using total probability: P(G)=P(B1)P(G∣B1)+P(B2)P(G∣B2)+P(B3)P(G∣B3)P(G)=P(B_1)P(G\mid B_1)+P(B_2)P(G\mid B_2)+P(B_3)P(G\mid B_3)P(G)=P(B1​)P(G∣B1​)+P(B2​)P(G∣B2​)+P(B3​)P(G∣B3​)

Substitute values: P(G)=310⋅12+310⋅58+410⋅38P(G)=\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac12+\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac58+\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac38P(G)=103​⋅21​+103​⋅85​+104​⋅83​

Compute each term: 310⋅12=320\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac12=\frac{3}{20}103​⋅21​=203​ 310⋅58=1580=316\frac{3}{10}\cdot\frac58=\frac{15}{80}=\frac{3}{16}103​⋅85​=8015​=163​ 410⋅38=1280=320\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac38=\frac{12}{80}=\frac{3}{20}104​⋅83​=8012​=203​

So, P(G)=320+316+320P(G)=\frac{3}{20}+\frac{3}{16}+\frac{3}{20}P(G)=203​+163​+203​

Take LCM 808080: P(G)=1280+1580+1280=3980P(G)=\frac{12}{80}+\frac{15}{80}+\frac{12}{80}=\frac{39}{80}P(G)=8012​+8015​+8012​=8039​

Hence, C is correct.


  1. Check Option B: probability selected bag is B3B_3B3​ given ball is green

Using Bayes' theorem: P(B3∣G)=P(B3∩G)P(G)P(B_3\mid G)=\frac{P(B_3\cap G)}{P(G)}P(B3​∣G)=P(G)P(B3​∩G)​

Now, P(B3∩G)=P(B3)P(G∣B3)=410⋅38=1280P(B_3\cap G)=P(B_3)P(G\mid B_3)=\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac38=\frac{12}{80}P(B3​∩G)=P(B3​)P(G∣B3​)=104​⋅83​=8012​

And from above, P(G)=3980P(G)=\frac{39}{80}P(G)=8039​

Therefore, P(B3∣G)=12/8039/80=1239=413P(B_3\mid G)=\frac{12/80}{39/80}=\frac{12}{39}=\frac{4}{13}P(B3​∣G)=39/8012/80​=3912​=134​

But option B says 513\frac{5}{13}135​, which is incorrect.

So, B is incorrect.


  1. Check Option D: probability that selected bag is B3B_3B3​ and chosen ball is green

P(B3∩G)=P(B3)P(G∣B3)=410⋅38=1280=320P(B_3\cap G)=P(B_3)P(G\mid B_3)=\frac{4}{10}\cdot\frac38=\frac{12}{80}=\frac{3}{20}P(B3​∩G)=P(B3​)P(G∣B3​)=104​⋅83​=8012​=203​

Option D says 310\frac{3}{10}103​, which is false.

So, D is incorrect.


  1. Final conclusion

Correct options are: A, C\boxed{A,\ C}A, C​

This matches the stored correct answer.

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