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Probability question

2017 · Shift 1 · Q19
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Probability question

2017 · Shift 1 · Q19

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMultiple correct+4 / −1
Let X and Y be two events such that P(X)=13P(X) = {1 \over 3}P(X)=31​, P(X∣Y)=12P(X|Y) = {1 \over 2}P(X∣Y)=21​ and P(Y∣X)=25P(Y|X) = {2 \over 5}P(Y∣X)=52​. Then
  1. A
    P(Y)=415P(Y) = {4 \over {15}}P(Y)=154​
  2. B
    P(X′∣Y)=12P(X'|Y) = {1 \over 2}P(X′∣Y)=21​
  3. C
    P(X∪Y)=25P(X \cup Y) = {2 \over 5}P(X∪Y)=52​
  4. D
    P(X∩Y)=15P(X \cap Y) = {1 \over 5}P(X∩Y)=51​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A, B

  1. Given data

We are given: P(X)=13,P(X∣Y)=12,P(Y∣X)=25.P(X)=\frac{1}{3}, \quad P(X\mid Y)=\frac{1}{2}, \quad P(Y\mid X)=\frac{2}{5}.P(X)=31​,P(X∣Y)=21​,P(Y∣X)=52​.

We use the conditional probability formulas: P(X∣Y)=P(X∩Y)P(Y),P(Y∣X)=P(X∩Y)P(X).P(X\mid Y)=\frac{P(X\cap Y)}{P(Y)}, \qquad P(Y\mid X)=\frac{P(X\cap Y)}{P(X)}.P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y)​,P(Y∣X)=P(X)P(X∩Y)​.


  1. Find P(X∩Y)P(X\cap Y)P(X∩Y) using P(Y∣X)P(Y\mid X)P(Y∣X)

Since P(Y∣X)=P(X∩Y)P(X)=25,P(Y\mid X)=\frac{P(X\cap Y)}{P(X)}=\frac{2}{5},P(Y∣X)=P(X)P(X∩Y)​=52​, we get P(X∩Y)=P(Y∣X)⋅P(X)=25⋅13=215.P(X\cap Y)=P(Y\mid X)\cdot P(X)=\frac{2}{5}\cdot \frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{15}.P(X∩Y)=P(Y∣X)⋅P(X)=52​⋅31​=152​.


  1. Find P(Y)P(Y)P(Y) using P(X∣Y)P(X\mid Y)P(X∣Y)

Now, P(X∣Y)=P(X∩Y)P(Y)=12.P(X\mid Y)=\frac{P(X\cap Y)}{P(Y)}=\frac{1}{2}.P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y)​=21​. So, 215 P(Y)=12\frac{2}{15\,P(Y)}=\frac{1}{2}15P(Y)2​=21​ or directly, P(Y)=P(X∩Y)P(X∣Y)=21512=415.P(Y)=\frac{P(X\cap Y)}{P(X\mid Y)}=\frac{\frac{2}{15}}{\frac{1}{2}}=\frac{4}{15}.P(Y)=P(X∣Y)P(X∩Y)​=21​152​​=154​.

So option A is correct.


  1. Check option B: P(X′∣Y)=12P(X'\mid Y)=\frac{1}{2}P(X′∣Y)=21​

Using complement inside event YYY: P(X′∣Y)=1−P(X∣Y)=1−12=12.P(X'\mid Y)=1-P(X\mid Y)=1-\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{2}.P(X′∣Y)=1−P(X∣Y)=1−21​=21​.

So option B is correct.


  1. Check option C: P(X∪Y)=25P(X\cup Y)=\frac{2}{5}P(X∪Y)=52​

Use P(X∪Y)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(X∩Y).P(X\cup Y)=P(X)+P(Y)-P(X\cap Y).P(X∪Y)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(X∩Y). Substitute values: P(X∪Y)=13+415−215.P(X\cup Y)=\frac{1}{3}+\frac{4}{15}-\frac{2}{15}.P(X∪Y)=31​+154​−152​. Convert to common denominator: 13=515.\frac{1}{3}=\frac{5}{15}.31​=155​. Hence, P(X∪Y)=515+415−215=715.P(X\cup Y)=\frac{5}{15}+\frac{4}{15}-\frac{2}{15}=\frac{7}{15}. P(X∪Y)=155​+154​−152​=157​. But 25=615.\frac{2}{5}=\frac{6}{15}. 52​=156​. Since 715≠25,\frac{7}{15}\ne \frac{2}{5},157​=52​, option C is false.


  1. Check option D: P(X∩Y)=15P(X\cap Y)=\frac{1}{5}P(X∩Y)=51​

We already found P(X∩Y)=215.P(X\cap Y)=\frac{2}{15}. P(X∩Y)=152​. Now, 15=315.\frac{1}{5}=\frac{3}{15}. 51​=153​. Since 215≠15,\frac{2}{15}\ne \frac{1}{5},152​=51​, option D is false.


  1. Final answer

Correct options are: A, B\boxed{A,\ B}A, B​

This matches the stored correct answer.

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