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Probability question

2023 · 31 Jan · Shift 1 · Q26
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  5. /2023 · 31 Jan · Shift 1 · Q26

Probability question

2023 · 31 Jan · Shift 1 · Q26

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A bag contains 6 balls. Two balls are drawn from it at random and both are found to be black. The probability that the bag contains at least 5 black balls is :
  1. A
    37\frac{3}{7}73​
  2. B
    56\frac{5}{6}65​
  3. C
    57\frac{5}{7}75​
  4. D
    27\frac{2}{7}72​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Interpretation of the problem

Let the number of black balls in the bag be unknown. Since the bag has 6 balls total, the possible numbers of black balls are:

0,1,2,3,4,5,60,1,2,3,4,5,60,1,2,3,4,5,6

We are told that two balls are drawn at random and both are black. We need:

P(at least 5 black balls in bag∣two drawn are black)P(\text{at least 5 black balls in bag} \mid \text{two drawn are black})P(at least 5 black balls in bag∣two drawn are black)

That is,

P(B≥5∣E)P(B\ge 5\mid E)P(B≥5∣E)

where:

  • BBB = number of black balls in the bag,
  • EEE = event that both drawn balls are black.

  1. Assume all possible bag compositions are equally likely

Since nothing else is specified, we take each possible number of black balls k=0,1,2,3,4,5,6k=0,1,2,3,4,5,6k=0,1,2,3,4,5,6 to be equally likely.

So,

P(B=k)=17,k=0,1,2,3,4,5,6P(B=k)=\frac{1}{7},\quad k=0,1,2,3,4,5,6P(B=k)=71​,k=0,1,2,3,4,5,6


  1. Compute P(E∣B=k)P(E\mid B=k)P(E∣B=k)

If the bag has kkk black balls, then the probability that both drawn balls are black is:

P(E∣B=k)=(k2)(62)P(E\mid B=k)=\frac{\binom{k}{2}}{\binom{6}{2}}P(E∣B=k)=(26​)(2k​)​

Now evaluate for each kkk:

  • k=0k=0k=0: P(E∣B=0)=0P(E\mid B=0)=0P(E∣B=0)=0
  • k=1k=1k=1: P(E∣B=1)=0P(E\mid B=1)=0P(E∣B=1)=0
  • k=2k=2k=2: P(E∣B=2)=(22)(62)=115P(E\mid B=2)=\frac{\binom{2}{2}}{\binom{6}{2}}=\frac{1}{15}P(E∣B=2)=(26​)(22​)​=151​
  • k=3k=3k=3: P(E∣B=3)=(32)15=315=15P(E\mid B=3)=\frac{\binom{3}{2}}{15}=\frac{3}{15}=\frac{1}{5}P(E∣B=3)=15(23​)​=153​=51​
  • k=4k=4k=4: P(E∣B=4)=(42)15=615=25P(E\mid B=4)=\frac{\binom{4}{2}}{15}=\frac{6}{15}=\frac{2}{5}P(E∣B=4)=15(24​)​=156​=52​
  • k=5k=5k=5: P(E∣B=5)=(52)15=1015=23P(E\mid B=5)=\frac{\binom{5}{2}}{15}=\frac{10}{15}=\frac{2}{3}P(E∣B=5)=15(25​)​=1510​=32​
  • k=6k=6k=6: P(E∣B=6)=(62)15=1P(E\mid B=6)=\frac{\binom{6}{2}}{15}=1P(E∣B=6)=15(26​)​=1

  1. Use Bayes' idea: posterior is proportional to prior × likelihood

Since each P(B=k)=17P(B=k)=\frac{1}{7}P(B=k)=71​ is equal, the posterior probabilities are proportional to:

P(E∣B=k)P(E\mid B=k)P(E∣B=k)

So we just sum the likelihoods.

Total weight:

0+0+115+15+25+23+10+0+\frac{1}{15}+\frac{1}{5}+\frac{2}{5}+\frac{2}{3}+10+0+151​+51​+52​+32​+1

Take LCM 151515:

=1+3+6+10+1515=3515=73=\frac{1+3+6+10+15}{15}=\frac{35}{15}=\frac{7}{3}=151+3+6+10+15​=1535​=37​

Now the favorable cases are B≥5B\ge 5B≥5, i.e. B=5B=5B=5 or B=6B=6B=6.

Their total weight is:

23+1=53\frac{2}{3}+1=\frac{5}{3}32​+1=35​

Hence,

P(B≥5∣E)=5373=57P(B\ge 5\mid E)=\frac{\frac{5}{3}}{\frac{7}{3}}=\frac{5}{7}P(B≥5∣E)=37​35​​=75​


  1. Match with options

57\frac{5}{7}75​ corresponds to Option C.


  1. Final answer

57\boxed{\frac{5}{7}}75​​

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