JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A bag contains 6 balls. Two balls are drawn from it at random and both are found to be black. The probability that the bag contains at least 5 black balls is :
- A
- B
- C
- D
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Correct answer: C
- Interpretation of the problem
Let the number of black balls in the bag be unknown. Since the bag has 6 balls total, the possible numbers of black balls are:
We are told that two balls are drawn at random and both are black. We need:
That is,
where:
- = number of black balls in the bag,
- = event that both drawn balls are black.
- Assume all possible bag compositions are equally likely
Since nothing else is specified, we take each possible number of black balls to be equally likely.
So,
- Compute
If the bag has black balls, then the probability that both drawn balls are black is:
Now evaluate for each :
- :
- :
- :
- :
- :
- :
- :
- Use Bayes' idea: posterior is proportional to prior × likelihood
Since each is equal, the posterior probabilities are proportional to:
So we just sum the likelihoods.
Total weight:
Take LCM :
Now the favorable cases are , i.e. or .
Their total weight is:
Hence,
- Match with options
corresponds to Option C.
- Final answer
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