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Probability question

2023 · 29 Jan · Shift 2 · Q29
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  5. /2023 · 29 Jan · Shift 2 · Q29

Probability question

2023 · 29 Jan · Shift 2 · Q29

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Let S={w1,w2,......}\mathrm{S} = \{ {w_1},{w_2},......\}S={w1​,w2​,......} be the sample space associated to a random experiment. Let P(wn)=P(wn−1)2,n≥2P({w_n}) = {{P({w_{n - 1}})} \over 2},n \ge 2P(wn​)=2P(wn−1​)​,n≥2. Let A={2k+3l:k,l∈N}A = \{ 2k + 3l:k,l \in N\}A={2k+3l:k,l∈N} and B={wn:n∈A}B = \{ {w_n}:n \in A\}B={wn​:n∈A}. Then P(B) is equal to :
  1. A
    332\frac{3}{32}323​
  2. B
    132\frac{1}{32}321​
  3. C
    116\frac{1}{16}161​
  4. D
    364\frac{3}{64}643​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

  1. Find the probability distribution on S={w1,w2,… }S=\{w_1,w_2,\dots\}S={w1​,w2​,…}

Given P(wn)=P(wn−1)2,n≥2P(w_n)=\frac{P(w_{n-1})}{2},\qquad n\ge 2P(wn​)=2P(wn−1​)​,n≥2 so the probabilities form a geometric progression: P(wn)=P(w1)2n−1.P(w_n)=\frac{P(w_1)}{2^{n-1}}.P(wn​)=2n−1P(w1​)​.

Since total probability is 111, ∑n=1∞P(wn)=∑n=1∞P(w1)2n−1=P(w1)∑m=0∞12m=P(w1)⋅2=1.\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} P(w_n)=\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{P(w_1)}{2^{n-1}}=P(w_1)\sum_{m=0}^{\infty} \frac1{2^m}=P(w_1)\cdot 2=1.∑n=1∞​P(wn​)=∑n=1∞​2n−1P(w1​)​=P(w1​)∑m=0∞​2m1​=P(w1​)⋅2=1. Hence P(w1)=12.P(w_1)=\frac12.P(w1​)=21​. Therefore, P(wn)=12n.P(w_n)=\frac{1}{2^n}. P(wn​)=2n1​.


  1. Interpret the set AAA

A={2k+3l:k,l∈N}.A=\{2k+3l: k,l\in N\}.A={2k+3l:k,l∈N}. Taking N={1,2,3,… }N=\{1,2,3,\dots\}N={1,2,3,…}, we get:

  • smallest value: 2(1)+3(1)=52(1)+3(1)=52(1)+3(1)=5
  • then all larger integers except 666? Let us check.

Values obtainable:

\quad 7=2+2+3, \quad 8=2+3+3, \quad 9=3+3+3, \quad 10=2+2+3+3,$$ and once $5,7,8$ are available, every integer $\ge 7$ is obtainable by adding $2$ or $3$ suitably. More directly, with positive integers $k,l$, the set is $$A=\{5,7,8,9,10,11,\dots\}$$ so the only integers $\ge 5$ not present are $6$. Thus $$A=\{n\in \mathbb N: n\ge 5,\ n\ne 6\}.$$ --- 3. **Compute** $P(B)$ Since $$B=\{w_n:n\in A\},$$ we have $$P(B)=\sum_{n\in A} P(w_n)=\sum_{n\in A} \frac1{2^n}.$$ Using the description of $A$, $$P(B)=\sum_{n=5}^{\infty} \frac1{2^n}-\frac1{2^6}.$$ Now $$\sum_{n=5}^{\infty} \frac1{2^n}=\frac{\frac1{2^5}}{1-\frac12}=\frac{1}{32}\cdot 2=\frac1{16}.$$ Hence $$P(B)=\frac1{16}-\frac1{64}=\frac4{64}-\frac1{64}=\frac3{64}.$$ --- 4. **Check options** The correct value is $$\boxed{\frac{3}{64}}.$$ So the correct option is **D**.
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