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Probability question

2023 · 25 Jan · Shift 2 · Q39
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  5. /2023 · 25 Jan · Shift 2 · Q39

Probability question

2023 · 25 Jan · Shift 2 · Q39

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
25% of the population are smokers. A smoker has 27 times more chances to develop lung cancer than a non smoker. A person is diagnosed with lung cancer and the probability that this person is a smoker is k10\frac{k}{10}%10k​. Then the value of k is ‾\underline{\hspace{2cm}}​.
Numerical answer
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: 9

  1. Define the events

Let:

  • SSS = person is a smoker
  • Sˉ\bar SSˉ = person is a non-smoker
  • CCC = person has lung cancer

Given:

  • P(S)=25%=14P(S)=25\%=\dfrac{1}{4}P(S)=25%=41​
  • P(Sˉ)=75%=34P(\bar S)=75\%=\dfrac{3}{4}P(Sˉ)=75%=43​

Also, a smoker has 272727 times the chance to develop lung cancer than a non-smoker. So if P(C∣Sˉ)=x,P(C\mid \bar S)=x,P(C∣Sˉ)=x, then P(C∣S)=27x.P(C\mid S)=27x.P(C∣S)=27x.


  1. Use Bayes' theorem

We need to find: P(S∣C).P(S\mid C).P(S∣C).

By Bayes' theorem, P(S∣C)=P(C∣S)P(S)P(C∣S)P(S)+P(C∣Sˉ)P(Sˉ).P(S\mid C)=\frac{P(C\mid S)P(S)}{P(C\mid S)P(S)+P(C\mid \bar S)P(\bar S)}.P(S∣C)=P(C∣S)P(S)+P(C∣Sˉ)P(Sˉ)P(C∣S)P(S)​.

Substitute the values: P(S∣C)=27x⋅1427x⋅14+x⋅34.P(S\mid C)=\frac{27x\cdot \frac14}{27x\cdot \frac14+x\cdot \frac34}.P(S∣C)=27x⋅41​+x⋅43​27x⋅41​​.

Factor out xxx: P(S∣C)=27⋅1427⋅14+34.P(S\mid C)=\frac{27\cdot \frac14}{27\cdot \frac14+\frac34}.P(S∣C)=27⋅41​+43​27⋅41​​.

Now simplify: P(S\mid C)=\frac{27/4}{27/4+3/4}= rac{27/4}{30/4}= rac{27}{30}= rac{9}{10}.

Thus, P(S∣C)=90%.P(S\mid C)=90\%.P(S∣C)=90%.


  1. Match with the given form

The problem says the probability is k10%\dfrac{k}{10}\%10k​%.

This is clearly intended to mean k×10%k\times 10\%k×10% (since the probability found is 90%90\%90%), so 90%=k×10%⇒k=9.90\%=k\times 10\% \Rightarrow k=9.90%=k×10%⇒k=9.


  1. Final answer

9\boxed{9}9​


  1. Comparison with stored answer

Stored correct answer = 999.

Our derived answer also is 999, so they agree.

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