JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
25% of the population are smokers. A smoker has 27 times more chances to develop lung cancer than a non smoker. A person is diagnosed with lung cancer and the probability that this person is a smoker is . Then the value of k is .
Numerical answer
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Correct answer: 9
- Define the events
Let:
- = person is a smoker
- = person is a non-smoker
- = person has lung cancer
Given:
Also, a smoker has times the chance to develop lung cancer than a non-smoker. So if then
- Use Bayes' theorem
We need to find:
By Bayes' theorem,
Substitute the values:
Factor out :
Now simplify: P(S\mid C)=\frac{27/4}{27/4+3/4}=rac{27/4}{30/4}=rac{27}{30}=rac{9}{10}.
Thus,
- Match with the given form
The problem says the probability is .
This is clearly intended to mean (since the probability found is ), so
- Final answer
- Comparison with stored answer
Stored correct answer = .
Our derived answer also is , so they agree.
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