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Probability question

2023 · 24 Jan · Shift 2 · Q44
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  5. /2023 · 24 Jan · Shift 2 · Q44

Probability question

2023 · 24 Jan · Shift 2 · Q44

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
Three urns A, B and C contain 4 red, 6 black; 5 red, 5 black; and λ\lambdaλ red, 4 black balls respectively. One of the urns is selected at random and a ball is drawn. If the ball drawn is red and the probability that it is drawn from urn C is 0.4 then the square of the length of the side of the largest equilateral triangle, inscribed in the parabola y2=λxy^2=\lambda xy2=λx with one vertex at the vertex of the parabola, is :
Numerical answer
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Correct answer: 432

  1. Use Bayes' theorem to find λ\lambdaλ

Let RRR be the event that the drawn ball is red.

Since one of the three urns is selected at random, P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=13.P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=\frac13.P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=31​.

Red-ball probabilities from each urn:

  • Urn AAA: P(R∣A)=410=25P(R|A)=\frac{4}{10}=\frac25P(R∣A)=104​=52​
  • Urn BBB: P(R∣B)=510=12P(R|B)=\frac{5}{10}=\frac12P(R∣B)=105​=21​
  • Urn CCC: P(R∣C)=λλ+4P(R|C)=\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}P(R∣C)=λ+4λ​

Given: P(C∣R)=0.4=25.P(C|R)=0.4=\frac25.P(C∣R)=0.4=52​.

By Bayes' theorem, P(C∣R)=P(C)P(R∣C)P(A)P(R∣A)+P(B)P(R∣B)+P(C)P(R∣C).P(C|R)=\frac{P(C)P(R|C)}{P(A)P(R|A)+P(B)P(R|B)+P(C)P(R|C)}.P(C∣R)=P(A)P(R∣A)+P(B)P(R∣B)+P(C)P(R∣C)P(C)P(R∣C)​.

Since all urns are equally likely, 13\frac1331​ cancels: λλ+4/(25+12+λλ+4)=25.\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}\Bigg/\left(\frac25+\frac12+\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}\right)=\frac25.λ+4λ​/(52​+21​+λ+4λ​)=52​.

Now, 25+12=4+510=910.\frac25+\frac12=\frac{4+5}{10}=\frac9{10}.52​+21​=104+5​=109​.

So, λλ+4/(910+λλ+4)=25.\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}\Bigg/\left(\frac9{10}+\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}\right)=\frac25.λ+4λ​/(109​+λ+4λ​)=52​.

Let t=λλ+4.t=\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}.t=λ+4λ​. Then t910+t=25.\frac{t}{\frac9{10}+t}=\frac25.109​+tt​=52​.

Cross-multiplying: 5t=2(910+t)=95+2t5t=2\left(\frac9{10}+t\right)=\frac95+2t5t=2(109​+t)=59​+2t 3t=953t=\frac953t=59​ t=35.t=\frac35.t=53​.

Hence, λλ+4=35\frac{\lambda}{\lambda+4}=\frac35λ+4λ​=53​ 5λ=3λ+125\lambda=3\lambda+125λ=3λ+12 2λ=122\lambda=122λ=12 λ=6.\lambda=6.λ=6.


  1. Parabola becomes y2=6x.y^2=6x.y2=6x.

Compare with standard form y2=4axy^2=4axy2=4ax: 4a=6  ⟹  a=32.4a=6\implies a=\frac32.4a=6⟹a=23​.

So the parabola is y2=4axwith a=32.y^2=4ax \quad \text{with } a=\frac32.y2=4axwith a=23​.


  1. Coordinates of an equilateral triangle with one vertex at the parabola vertex

Vertex of parabola is at O=(0,0).O=(0,0).O=(0,0).

Take the other two vertices on the parabola as P(at12,2at1),Q(at22,2at2).P(at_1^2,2at_1), \qquad Q(at_2^2,2at_2).P(at12​,2at1​),Q(at22​,2at2​).

Since triangle OPQOPQOPQ is equilateral, we need OP=OQ=PQ.OP=OQ=PQ.OP=OQ=PQ.

First, OP2=(at12)2+(2at1)2=a2t14+4a2t12=a2t12(t12+4).OP^2=(at_1^2)^2+(2at_1)^2=a^2t_1^4+4a^2t_1^2=a^2t_1^2(t_1^2+4).OP2=(at12​)2+(2at1​)2=a2t14​+4a2t12​=a2t12​(t12​+4). Similarly, OQ2=a2t22(t22+4).OQ^2=a^2t_2^2(t_2^2+4).OQ2=a2t22​(t22​+4).

A standard symmetric choice for the largest such triangle is to take points symmetric about the xxx-axis: P(at2,2at),Q(at2,−2at).P(at^2,2at), \qquad Q(at^2,-2at).P(at2,2at),Q(at2,−2at).

Then PQ=4at,PQ=4at,PQ=4at, and OP2=OQ2=a2t2(t2+4).OP^2=OQ^2=a^2t^2(t^2+4).OP2=OQ2=a2t2(t2+4).

For equilateral triangle, OP=PQ.OP=PQ.OP=PQ. So, a2t2(t2+4)=(4at)2=16a2t2.a^2t^2(t^2+4)=(4at)^2=16a^2t^2.a2t2(t2+4)=(4at)2=16a2t2.

Assuming t≠0t\ne 0t=0, divide by a2t2a^2t^2a2t2: t2+4=16t^2+4=16t2+4=16 t2=12.t^2=12.t2=12.

Thus side length squared is PQ2=(4at)2=16a2t2.PQ^2=(4at)^2=16a^2t^2.PQ2=(4at)2=16a2t2. Substitute a=32a=\frac32a=23​ and t2=12t^2=12t2=12: PQ2=16(32)2(12)=16⋅94⋅12.PQ^2=16\left(\frac32\right)^2(12)=16\cdot\frac94\cdot 12.PQ2=16(23​)2(12)=16⋅49​⋅12.

Now, 16⋅94=36,16\cdot\frac94=36,16⋅49​=36, so PQ2=36⋅12=432.PQ^2=36\cdot 12=432.PQ2=36⋅12=432.


  1. Final answer

The square of the side of the largest equilateral triangle is 432.\boxed{432}.432​.

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