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Probability question

2020 · 7 Jan · Shift 1 · Q40
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  5. /2020 · 7 Jan · Shift 1 · Q40

Probability question

2020 · 7 Jan · Shift 1 · Q40

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
An unbiased coin is tossed 5 times. Suppose that a variable X is assigned the value of k when k consecutive heads are obtained for k = 3, 4, 5, otherwise X takes the value -1. Then the expected value of X, is :
  1. A
    −316- {3 \over {16}}−163​
  2. B
    −18- {1 \over 8}−81​
  3. C
    18{1 \over 8}81​
  4. D
    316{3 \over {16}}163​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Interpretation of the random variable

We toss an unbiased coin 555 times.

The variable XXX is defined as:

  • X=3X=3X=3 if the outcome contains exactly/assigned for 333 consecutive heads,
  • X=4X=4X=4 if it contains 444 consecutive heads,
  • X=5X=5X=5 if it contains 555 consecutive heads,
  • otherwise X=−1X=-1X=−1.

Since there are only 555 tosses, the relevant runs of consecutive heads are of lengths 3,4,53,4,53,4,5.

A natural interpretation is that XXX equals the maximum length of a consecutive run of heads when that maximum is 3,4,3,4,3,4, or 555; otherwise X=−1X=-1X=−1.

Total number of outcomes: 25=32.2^5=32.25=32.


  1. Find outcomes with maximum run length 555

This happens only for: HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH So, P(X=5)=132.P(X=5)=\frac{1}{32}.P(X=5)=321​.


  1. Find outcomes with maximum run length 444

This means there is a run of 444 heads, but not 555 heads.

Possible sequences:

  • HHHHTHHHHTHHHHT
  • THHHHTHHHHTHHHH

So, P(X=4)=232=116.P(X=4)=\frac{2}{32}=\frac{1}{16}.P(X=4)=322​=161​.


  1. Find outcomes with maximum run length 333

This means there is a run of exactly 333 consecutive heads, but no run of 444 or 555 heads.

List such sequences:

  • HHHTTHHHTTHHHTT
  • THHHTTHHHTTHHHT
  • TTHHHTTHHHTTHHH
  • HHHTHHHHTHHHHTH
  • HTHHHHTHHHHTHHH

Thus, P(X=3)=532.P(X=3)=\frac{5}{32}.P(X=3)=325​.


  1. Find probability that no run of 333 or more heads occurs

Then X=−1X=-1X=−1.

So remaining outcomes: 32−(1+2+5)=24.32-(1+2+5)=24.32−(1+2+5)=24. Hence, P(X=−1)=2432=34.P(X=-1)=\frac{24}{32}=\frac{3}{4}.P(X=−1)=3224​=43​.


  1. Compute expectation

E[X]=3⋅P(X=3)+4⋅P(X=4)+5⋅P(X=5)+(−1)⋅P(X=−1).E[X]=3\cdot P(X=3)+4\cdot P(X=4)+5\cdot P(X=5)+(-1)\cdot P(X=-1).E[X]=3⋅P(X=3)+4⋅P(X=4)+5⋅P(X=5)+(−1)⋅P(X=−1).

Substitute values: E[X]=3⋅532+4⋅232+5⋅132−1⋅2432.E[X]=3\cdot \frac{5}{32}+4\cdot \frac{2}{32}+5\cdot \frac{1}{32}-1\cdot \frac{24}{32}.E[X]=3⋅325​+4⋅322​+5⋅321​−1⋅3224​.

E[X]=15+8+5−2432=432=18.E[X]=\frac{15+8+5-24}{32}=\frac{4}{32}=\frac{1}{8}.E[X]=3215+8+5−24​=324​=81​.


  1. Conclusion

E[X]=18\boxed{E[X]=\frac{1}{8}}E[X]=81​​

So the correct option is C.

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