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Probability question

2019 · 8 Apr · Shift 2 · Q40
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Probability question

2019 · 8 Apr · Shift 2 · Q40

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
The minimum number of times one has to toss a fair coin so that the probability of observing at least one head is at least 90% is :
  1. A
    2
  2. B
    3
  3. C
    4
  4. D
    5
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Let the number of tosses be nnn.

  2. We want: P(at least one head)≥0.9P(\text{at least one head}) \ge 0.9P(at least one head)≥0.9

  3. Use the complement: P(at least one head)=1−P(no head)=1−P(all tails)P(\text{at least one head}) = 1 - P(\text{no head}) = 1 - P(\text{all tails})P(at least one head)=1−P(no head)=1−P(all tails)

  4. For a fair coin, probability of tail on one toss is 12\frac{1}{2}21​. So probability of all tails in nnn tosses is: (12)n\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n(21​)n

Hence, 1−(12)n≥0.91 - \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n \ge 0.91−(21​)n≥0.9

  1. Solve the inequality: (12)n≤0.1\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n \le 0.1(21​)n≤0.1

Now check integer values of nnn:

  • For n=3n=3n=3: (12)3=18=0.125>0.1\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{8} = 0.125 > 0.1(21​)3=81​=0.125>0.1 So 3 tosses are not enough.

  • For n=4n=4n=4: (12)4=116=0.0625<0.1\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4 = \frac{1}{16} = 0.0625 < 0.1(21​)4=161​=0.0625<0.1 So 4 tosses are enough.

  1. Therefore, the minimum number of tosses required is: 4\boxed{4}4​

  2. Option check:

  • A: 2 ⇒1−14=0.75\Rightarrow 1-\frac14=0.75⇒1−41​=0.75 ❌
  • B: 3 ⇒1−18=0.875\Rightarrow 1-\frac18=0.875⇒1−81​=0.875 ❌
  • C: 4 ⇒1−116=0.9375\Rightarrow 1-\frac1{16}=0.9375⇒1−161​=0.9375 ✅
  • D: 5 is sufficient, but not minimum ❌

So the correct option is C.

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