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Probability question

2020 · 4 Sep · Shift 2 · Q26
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  5. /2020 · 4 Sep · Shift 2 · Q26

Probability question

2020 · 4 Sep · Shift 2 · Q26

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
In a game two players A and B take turns in throwing a pair of fair dice starting with player A and total of scores on the two dice, in each throw is noted. A wins the game if he throws total a of 6 before B throws a total of 7 and B wins the game if he throws a total of 7 before A throws a total of six. The game stops as soon as either of the players wins. The probability of A winning the game is :
  1. A
    56{5 \over {6}}65​
  2. B
    531{5 \over {31}}315​
  3. C
    3161{31 \over {61}}6131​
  4. D
    3061{30 \over {61}}6130​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

  1. Find the required single-throw probabilities

For a pair of fair dice:

  • Total 666 can occur in (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1)(1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1)(1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1) so P(sum 6)=536.P(\text{sum }6)=\frac{5}{36}.P(sum 6)=365​.

  • Total 777 can occur in (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) so P(sum 7)=636=16.P(\text{sum }7)=\frac{6}{36}=\frac{1}{6}.P(sum 7)=366​=61​.

Thus:

  • On A's turn, probability of success (getting 666) is p=536.p=\frac{5}{36}.p=365​.
  • On B's turn, probability of success (getting 777) is q=16=636.q=\frac{1}{6}=\frac{6}{36}.q=61​=366​.
  1. Set up the game cycle

A starts first.

A wins immediately on his first throw with probability ppp.

If A fails and B also fails, then the situation resets to the original state.

Probability that both fail in one full round is

=\frac{31}{36}\cdot\frac{5}{6}= rac{155}{216}. $$ 3. **Form the infinite series** A can win: - in round 1: with probability $p$ - after both fail once, then A succeeds: with probability $(1-p)(1-q)p$ - after both fail twice, then A succeeds: with probability $[(1-p)(1-q)]^2p$ - and so on. So, $$P(A)=p\left[1+r+r^2+\cdots\right],$$ where $$r=(1-p)(1-q)=\frac{155}{216}.$$ Using geometric series, $$P(A)=\frac{p}{1-r}.$$ 4. **Compute** $$P(A)=\frac{\frac{5}{36}}{1-\frac{155}{216}} =\frac{\frac{5}{36}}{\frac{61}{216}}.

Now, 536⋅21661=5⋅661=3061.\frac{5}{36}\cdot\frac{216}{61}=\frac{5\cdot 6}{61}=\frac{30}{61}.365​⋅61216​=615⋅6​=6130​.

Hence, P(A)=3061.\boxed{P(A)=\frac{30}{61}}.P(A)=6130​​.

  1. Check options

The correct option is: D: 3061.\boxed{\text{D: } \frac{30}{61}}.D: 6130​​.

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