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Probability question

2020 · 4 Sep · Shift 1 · Q23
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Probability question

2020 · 4 Sep · Shift 1 · Q23

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
The probability of a man hitting a target is 110{1 \over {10}}101​. The least number of shots required, so that the probability of his hitting the target at least once is greater than 14{1 \over {4}}41​, is ‾\underline{\hspace{2cm}}​.
Numerical answer
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Correct answer: 3

  1. Let the probability of hitting the target in one shot be p=110.p=\frac{1}{10}.p=101​. Hence, the probability of missing in one shot is q=1−p=1−110=910.q=1-p=1-\frac{1}{10}=\frac{9}{10}.q=1−p=1−101​=109​.

  2. If the man takes nnn independent shots, then the probability that he misses all nnn shots is (910)n.\left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^n.(109​)n.

  3. Therefore, the probability that he hits the target at least once is 1−(910)n.1-\left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^n.1−(109​)n.

  4. We need this probability to be greater than 14\frac1441​: 1−(910)n>14.1-\left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^n>\frac14.1−(109​)n>41​.

  5. Rearranging, (910)n<34.\left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^n<\frac34.(109​)n<43​.

  6. Now check the smallest integer nnn:

    • For n=2n=2n=2, (910)2=81100=0.81>0.75,\left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^2=\frac{81}{100}=0.81>0.75,(109​)2=10081​=0.81>0.75, so this does not satisfy the condition.

    • For n=3n=3n=3, (910)3=7291000=0.729<0.75,\left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^3=\frac{729}{1000}=0.729<0.75,(109​)3=1000729​=0.729<0.75, so this does satisfy the condition.

    Hence, the least number of shots required is n=3.n=3.n=3.

  7. Comparison with stored answer:

    • Derived answer: 333
    • Stored correct answer: 333 These agree.
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