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Probability question

2020 · 2 Sep · Shift 1 · Q22
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Probability question

2020 · 2 Sep · Shift 1 · Q22

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Box I contains 30 cards numbered 1 to 30 and Box II contains 20 cards numbered 31 to 50. A box is selected at random and a card is drawn from it. The number on the card is found to be a non-prime number. The probability that the card was drawn from Box I is :
  1. A
    817{8 \over {17}}178​
  2. B
    23{2 \over 3}32​
  3. C
    25{2 \over 5}52​
  4. D
    417{4 \over {17}}174​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A

  1. Define events

Let:

  • B1B_1B1​ = card drawn from Box I
  • B2B_2B2​ = card drawn from Box II
  • NNN = drawn card has a non-prime number

Since a box is selected at random, P(B1)=P(B2)=12.P(B_1)=P(B_2)=\frac12.P(B1​)=P(B2​)=21​.

We need: P(B1∣N).P(B_1\mid N).P(B1​∣N).

Using Bayes' theorem, P(B1∣N)=P(B1)P(N∣B1)P(B1)P(N∣B1)+P(B2)P(N∣B2).P(B_1\mid N)=\frac{P(B_1)P(N\mid B_1)}{P(B_1)P(N\mid B_1)+P(B_2)P(N\mid B_2)}.P(B1​∣N)=P(B1​)P(N∣B1​)+P(B2​)P(N∣B2​)P(B1​)P(N∣B1​)​.


  1. Find non-prime numbers in Box I

Box I contains numbers 111 to 303030.

Prime numbers from 111 to 303030 are: 2,3,5,7,11,13,17,19,23,292,3,5,7,11,13,17,19,23,292,3,5,7,11,13,17,19,23,29 So number of primes =10=10=10.

Hence number of non-primes in Box I: 30−10=20.30-10=20.30−10=20. Therefore, P(N∣B1)=2030=23.P(N\mid B_1)=\frac{20}{30}=\frac23.P(N∣B1​)=3020​=32​.


  1. Find non-prime numbers in Box II

Box II contains numbers 313131 to 505050, total 202020 numbers.

Primes from 313131 to 505050 are: 31,37,41,43,4731,37,41,43,4731,37,41,43,47 So number of primes =5=5=5.

Hence number of non-primes in Box II: 20−5=15.20-5=15.20−5=15. Therefore, P(N∣B2)=1520=34.P(N\mid B_2)=\frac{15}{20}=\frac34.P(N∣B2​)=2015​=43​.


  1. Apply Bayes' theorem

P(B1∣N)=12⋅2312⋅23+12⋅34.P(B_1\mid N)=\frac{\frac12\cdot\frac23}{\frac12\cdot\frac23+\frac12\cdot\frac34}.P(B1​∣N)=21​⋅32​+21​⋅43​21​⋅32​​.

Cancel 12\frac1221​ from numerator and denominator: P(B1∣N)=2323+34.P(B_1\mid N)=\frac{\frac23}{\frac23+\frac34}.P(B1​∣N)=32​+43​32​​.

Now, 23+34=8+912=1712.\frac23+\frac34=\frac{8+9}{12}=\frac{17}{12}.32​+43​=128+9​=1217​.

So, P(B_1\mid N)=\frac{\frac23}{\frac{17}{12}}= rac23\cdot\frac{12}{17}=\frac{8}{17}.


  1. Compare with options

817\frac{8}{17}178​ which matches Option A.


  1. Comparison with stored correct answer

Stored correct answer: A

Derived answer: A

So they agree.

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