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Probability question

2021 · Shift 1 · Q24
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Probability question

2021 · Shift 1 · Q24

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+2 / −1
Three numbers are chosen at random, one after another with replacement, from the set S = {1, 2, 3, ......, 100}. Let p1 be the probability that the maximum of chosen numbers is at least 81 and p2 be the probability that the minimum of chosen numbers is at most 40. The value of 6254p1{{625} \over 4}{p_1}4625​p1​ is ‾\underline{\hspace{2cm}}​.
Numerical answer
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: 76.25

  1. Interpret the experiment

Three numbers are chosen with replacement from S={1,2,3,…,100}.S=\{1,2,3,\dots,100\}.S={1,2,3,…,100}. So each draw is independent, and each number from 111 to 100100100 is equally likely.

We need p1=p_1 =p1​= probability that the maximum of the three chosen numbers is at least 818181.

Then we must compute 6254p1.\frac{625}{4}p_1.4625​p1​.


  1. Find p1p_1p1​ using the complement

The event max⁡{X1,X2,X3}≥81\max\{X_1,X_2,X_3\} \ge 81max{X1​,X2​,X3​}≥81 is easier to handle by using its complement: max⁡{X1,X2,X3}<81.\max\{X_1,X_2,X_3\} < 81.max{X1​,X2​,X3​}<81.

If the maximum is less than 818181, then all three numbers must lie in {1,2,3,…,80}.\{1,2,3,\dots,80\}.{1,2,3,…,80}.

For one draw, P(number≤80)=80100=45.P(\text{number} \le 80)=\frac{80}{100}=\frac45.P(number≤80)=10080​=54​.

Since the draws are independent, P(max⁡<81)=(45)3=64125.P(\max<81)=\left(\frac45\right)^3=\frac{64}{125}.P(max<81)=(54​)3=12564​.

Therefore, p1=1−64125=61125.p_1=1-\frac{64}{125}=\frac{61}{125}.p1​=1−12564​=12561​.


  1. Compute 6254p1\frac{625}{4}p_14625​p1​

6254p1=6254⋅61125.\frac{625}{4}p_1=\frac{625}{4}\cdot \frac{61}{125}.4625​p1​=4625​⋅12561​.

Simplify: 625125=5,\frac{625}{125}=5,125625​=5, so 6254⋅61125=5⋅614=3054=76.25.\frac{625}{4}\cdot \frac{61}{125}=\frac{5\cdot 61}{4}=\frac{305}{4}=76.25.4625​⋅12561​=45⋅61​=4305​=76.25.


  1. About p2p_2p2​

The quantity p2p_2p2​ is defined in the question, but it is not needed for the asked value.


  1. Final answer

6254p1=76.25\frac{625}{4}p_1=76.254625​p1​=76.25

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