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Probability question

2021 · Shift 1 · Q32
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  5. /2021 · Shift 1 · Q32

Probability question

2021 · Shift 1 · Q32

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMultiple correct+4 / −2
Let E, F and G be three events having probabilities P(E)=18P(E) = {1 \over 8}P(E)=81​, P(F)=16P(F) = {1 \over 6}P(F)=61​ and P(G)=14P(G) = {1 \over 4}P(G)=41​, and let P (E ∩\cap∩ F ∩\cap∩ G) =110{1 \over {10}}101​. For any event H, if Hc denotes the complement, then which of the following statements is (are) TRUE?
  1. A
    P(E∩F∩Gc)≤140P(E \cap F \cap {G^c}) \le {1 \over {40}}P(E∩F∩Gc)≤401​
  2. B
    P(Ec∩F∩G)≤115P({E^c} \cap F \cap G) \le {1 \over {15}}P(Ec∩F∩G)≤151​
  3. C
    P(E∪F∪G)≤1324P(E \cup F \cup G) \le {{13} \over {24}}P(E∪F∪G)≤2413​
  4. D
    P(Ec∪Fc∪Gc)≤512P({E^c} \cup {F^c} \cup {G^c}) \le {5 \over {12}}P(Ec∪Fc∪Gc)≤125​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A, B, C

  1. Given data

We are given: P(E)=18,P(F)=16,P(G)=14,P(E∩F∩G)=110.P(E)=\frac18,\quad P(F)=\frac16,\quad P(G)=\frac14,\quad P(E\cap F\cap G)=\frac1{10}.P(E)=81​,P(F)=61​,P(G)=41​,P(E∩F∩G)=101​.

We must test each statement.


  1. First check consistency of the given probabilities

For any three events, E∩F∩G⊆E,E∩F∩G⊆F,E∩F∩G⊆G.E\cap F\cap G \subseteq E,\quad E\cap F\cap G \subseteq F,\quad E\cap F\cap G \subseteq G.E∩F∩G⊆E,E∩F∩G⊆F,E∩F∩G⊆G. Hence, P(E∩F∩G)≤P(E), P(F), P(G).P(E\cap F\cap G) \le P(E),\ P(F),\ P(G).P(E∩F∩G)≤P(E), P(F), P(G).

But here, P(E∩F∩G)=110=0.1,P(E\cap F\cap G)=\frac1{10}=0.1,P(E∩F∩G)=101​=0.1, while P(E)=18=0.125,P(F)=16≈0.1667,P(G)=14=0.25.P(E)=\frac18=0.125,\quad P(F)=\frac16\approx 0.1667,\quad P(G)=\frac14=0.25.P(E)=81​=0.125,P(F)=61​≈0.1667,P(G)=41​=0.25. So the data is not immediately impossible from this check.

However, also note that E∩F∩G⊆E∩F,E\cap F\cap G \subseteq E\cap F,E∩F∩G⊆E∩F, so P(E∩F)≥110,P(E\cap F) \ge \frac1{10},P(E∩F)≥101​, and similarly for other pairwise intersections.

We now evaluate each option carefully.


  1. Option A: P(E∩F∩Gc)≤140P(E\cap F\cap G^c) \le \frac1{40}P(E∩F∩Gc)≤401​

Observe that E∩F=(E∩F∩G) ∪ (E∩F∩Gc),E\cap F=(E\cap F\cap G)\ \cup\ (E\cap F\cap G^c),E∩F=(E∩F∩G) ∪ (E∩F∩Gc), with disjoint union. Therefore, P(E∩F∩Gc)=P(E∩F)−P(E∩F∩G).P(E\cap F\cap G^c)=P(E\cap F)-P(E\cap F\cap G).P(E∩F∩Gc)=P(E∩F)−P(E∩F∩G).

Now, P(E∩F)≤P(E)=18.P(E\cap F) \le P(E)=\frac18.P(E∩F)≤P(E)=81​. Hence, P(E\cap F\cap G^c) \le \frac18-\frac1{10}= rac{5-4}{40}=\frac1{40}.

So A is true.


  1. Option B: P(Ec∩F∩G)≤115P(E^c\cap F\cap G) \le \frac1{15}P(Ec∩F∩G)≤151​

Similarly, F∩G=(E∩F∩G) ∪ (Ec∩F∩G),F\cap G=(E\cap F\cap G)\ \cup\ (E^c\cap F\cap G),F∩G=(E∩F∩G) ∪ (Ec∩F∩G), so P(Ec∩F∩G)=P(F∩G)−P(E∩F∩G).P(E^c\cap F\cap G)=P(F\cap G)-P(E\cap F\cap G).P(Ec∩F∩G)=P(F∩G)−P(E∩F∩G).

Since P(F∩G)≤P(F)=16,P(F\cap G)\le P(F)=\frac16,P(F∩G)≤P(F)=61​, we get P(E^c\cap F\cap G) \le \frac16-\frac1{10}= rac{5-3}{30}=\frac1{15}.

So B is true.


  1. Option C: P(E∪F∪G)≤1324P(E\cup F\cup G) \le \frac{13}{24}P(E∪F∪G)≤2413​

Using inclusion-exclusion, P(E∪F∪G)=P(E)+P(F)+P(G)−P(E∩F)−P(F∩G)−P(G∩E)+P(E∩F∩G).P(E\cup F\cup G)=P(E)+P(F)+P(G)-P(E\cap F)-P(F\cap G)-P(G\cap E)+P(E\cap F\cap G).P(E∪F∪G)=P(E)+P(F)+P(G)−P(E∩F)−P(F∩G)−P(G∩E)+P(E∩F∩G).

Now, P(E∩F)≥P(E∩F∩G)=110,P(E\cap F)\ge P(E\cap F\cap G)=\frac1{10},P(E∩F)≥P(E∩F∩G)=101​, P(F∩G)≥110,P(F\cap G)\ge \frac1{10},P(F∩G)≥101​, P(G∩E)≥110.P(G\cap E)\ge \frac1{10}.P(G∩E)≥101​.

Therefore, P(E∪F∪G)≤18+16+14−3⋅110+110.P(E\cup F\cup G) \le \frac18+\frac16+\frac14-3\cdot\frac1{10}+\frac1{10}.P(E∪F∪G)≤81​+61​+41​−3⋅101​+101​.

Simplify: 18+16+14=3+4+624=1324.\frac18+\frac16+\frac14=\frac{3+4+6}{24}=\frac{13}{24}.81​+61​+41​=243+4+6​=2413​. Thus, P(E\cup F\cup G) \le \frac{13}{24}-\frac{2}{10}= rac{13}{24}-\frac15. Since subtracting a positive number makes it even smaller, certainly P(E∪F∪G)≤1324.P(E\cup F\cup G) \le \frac{13}{24}.P(E∪F∪G)≤2413​.

Hence C is true.


  1. Option D: P(Ec∪Fc∪Gc)≤512P(E^c\cup F^c\cup G^c) \le \frac{5}{12}P(Ec∪Fc∪Gc)≤125​

By De Morgan's law, Ec∪Fc∪Gc=(E∩F∩G)c.E^c\cup F^c\cup G^c=(E\cap F\cap G)^c.Ec∪Fc∪Gc=(E∩F∩G)c. Therefore, P(Ec∪Fc∪Gc)=1−P(E∩F∩G)=1−110=910.P(E^c\cup F^c\cup G^c)=1-P(E\cap F\cap G)=1-\frac1{10}=\frac9{10}.P(Ec∪Fc∪Gc)=1−P(E∩F∩G)=1−101​=109​.

Now, 910=0.9>512≈0.4167.\frac9{10}=0.9 > \frac5{12}\approx 0.4167.109​=0.9>125​≈0.4167. So the inequality is false.

Hence D is false.


  1. Final conclusion

The true statements are: A, B, C.\boxed{A,\ B,\ C}.A, B, C​.

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