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Probability question

2013 · Shift 2 · Q26
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  5. /2013 · Shift 2 · Q26

Probability question

2013 · Shift 2 · Q26

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A box B1{B_1}B1​ contains 111 white ball, 333 red balls and 222 black balls. Another box B2{B_2}B2​ contains 222 white balls, 333 red balls and 444 black balls. A third box B3{B_3}B3​ contains 333 white balls, 444 red balls and 555 black balls. If 222 balls are drawn (without replacement) from a randomly selected box and one of the balls is white and the other ball is red, the probability that these 222 balls are drawn from box B2{B_2}B2​ is
  1. A
    116181{{116} \over {181}}181116​
  2. B
    126181{{126} \over {181}}181126​
  3. C
    65181{{65} \over {181}}18165​
  4. D
    55181{{55} \over {181}}18155​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

Let

  • EEE = event that the chosen box is B2B_2B2​
  • AAA = event that in drawing 222 balls, one is white and one is red

We need to find: P(B2∣A)P(B_2\mid A)P(B2​∣A)

Since the box is selected randomly, P(B1)=P(B2)=P(B3)=13P(B_1)=P(B_2)=P(B_3)=\frac13P(B1​)=P(B2​)=P(B3​)=31​

We use Bayes' theorem: P(B2∣A)=P(B2)P(A∣B2)P(B1)P(A∣B1)+P(B2)P(A∣B2)+P(B3)P(A∣B3)P(B_2\mid A)=\frac{P(B_2)P(A\mid B_2)}{P(B_1)P(A\mid B_1)+P(B_2)P(A\mid B_2)+P(B_3)P(A\mid B_3)}P(B2​∣A)=P(B1​)P(A∣B1​)+P(B2​)P(A∣B2​)+P(B3​)P(A∣B3​)P(B2​)P(A∣B2​)​

Because all three prior probabilities are equal, this becomes P(B2∣A)=P(A∣B2)P(A∣B1)+P(A∣B2)+P(A∣B3)P(B_2\mid A)=\frac{P(A\mid B_2)}{P(A\mid B_1)+P(A\mid B_2)+P(A\mid B_3)}P(B2​∣A)=P(A∣B1​)+P(A∣B2​)+P(A∣B3​)P(A∣B2​)​

1. Compute P(A∣B1)P(A\mid B_1)P(A∣B1​)

Box B1B_1B1​ has 111 white, 333 red, 222 black balls, total 666.

Probability of getting one white and one red: P(A∣B1)=(11)(31)(62)=1⋅315=15P(A\mid B_1)=\frac{\binom11\binom31}{\binom62}=\frac{1\cdot 3}{15}=\frac15P(A∣B1​)=(26​)(11​)(13​)​=151⋅3​=51​

2. Compute P(A∣B2)P(A\mid B_2)P(A∣B2​)

Box B2B_2B2​ has 222 white, 333 red, 444 black balls, total 999.

P(A∣B2)=(21)(31)(92)=2⋅336=16P(A\mid B_2)=\frac{\binom21\binom31}{\binom92}=\frac{2\cdot 3}{36}=\frac16P(A∣B2​)=(29​)(12​)(13​)​=362⋅3​=61​

3. Compute P(A∣B3)P(A\mid B_3)P(A∣B3​)

Box B3B_3B3​ has 333 white, 444 red, 555 black balls, total 121212.

P(A∣B3)=(31)(41)(122)=3⋅466=211P(A\mid B_3)=\frac{\binom31\binom41}{\binom{12}2}=\frac{3\cdot 4}{66}=\frac{2}{11}P(A∣B3​)=(212​)(13​)(14​)​=663⋅4​=112​

4. Apply Bayes' theorem

So, P(B2∣A)=1615+16+211P(B_2\mid A)=\frac{\frac16}{\frac15+\frac16+\frac{2}{11}}P(B2​∣A)=51​+61​+112​61​​

Now add the denominator: 15+16+211\frac15+\frac16+\frac{2}{11}51​+61​+112​ LCM of 5,6,115,6,115,6,11 is 330330330.

15=66330,16=55330,211=60330\frac15=\frac{66}{330},\quad \frac16=\frac{55}{330},\quad \frac{2}{11}=\frac{60}{330}51​=33066​,61​=33055​,112​=33060​

Hence, 15+16+211=66+55+60330=181330\frac15+\frac16+\frac{2}{11}=\frac{66+55+60}{330}=\frac{181}{330}51​+61​+112​=33066+55+60​=330181​

Therefore, P(B2∣A)=16181330=16⋅330181=55181P(B_2\mid A)=\frac{\frac16}{\frac{181}{330}}=\frac16\cdot\frac{330}{181}=\frac{55}{181}P(B2​∣A)=330181​61​​=61​⋅181330​=18155​

5. Final answer

55181\boxed{\frac{55}{181}}18155​​ This corresponds to Option D.

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