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Probability question

2010 · Shift 2 · Q37
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  5. /2010 · Shift 2 · Q37

Probability question

2010 · Shift 2 · Q37

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A signal which can be green or red with probability 45{4 \over 5}54​ and 15{1 \over 5}51​ respectively, is received by station A and then transmitted to station BBB. The probability of each station receving the signal correctly is 34{3 \over 4}43​. If the signal received at atation BBB is green, then the probability that the original signal was green is
  1. A
    35{3 \over 5}53​
  2. B
    67{6 \over 7}76​
  3. C
    2023{20 \over 23}2320​
  4. D
    920{9 \over 20}209​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Define events

Let:

  • GGG = original signal is green
  • RRR = original signal is red
  • BGB_GBG​ = station BBB receives green

Given: P(G)=45,P(R)=15P(G)=\frac45, \qquad P(R)=\frac15P(G)=54​,P(R)=51​

Each station receives/transmits correctly with probability: 34\frac3443​ So, each station makes an error with probability: 14\frac1441​

We need to find: P(G∣BG)P(G\mid B_G)P(G∣BG​) using Bayes' theorem.


  1. Find P(BG∣G)P(B_G\mid G)P(BG​∣G)

If the original signal is green, then for station BBB to finally receive green, two possible paths exist:

  • AAA receives green correctly and transmits it correctly to BBB: 34⋅34=916\frac34\cdot \frac34 = \frac{9}{16}43​⋅43​=169​

  • AAA receives it wrongly as red, and then BBB receives that wrongly as green: 14⋅14=116\frac14\cdot \frac14 = \frac{1}{16}41​⋅41​=161​

Hence, P(BG∣G)=916+116=1016=58P(B_G\mid G)=\frac{9}{16}+\frac{1}{16}=\frac{10}{16}=\frac58P(BG​∣G)=169​+161​=1610​=85​


  1. Find P(BG∣R)P(B_G\mid R)P(BG​∣R)

If the original signal is red, then for station BBB to receive green, two possible paths exist:

  • AAA receives red correctly, but BBB receives it wrongly as green: 34⋅14=316\frac34\cdot \frac14 = \frac{3}{16}43​⋅41​=163​

  • AAA receives red wrongly as green, and BBB receives green correctly: 14⋅34=316\frac14\cdot \frac34 = \frac{3}{16}41​⋅43​=163​

Thus, P(BG∣R)=316+316=616=38P(B_G\mid R)=\frac{3}{16}+\frac{3}{16}=\frac{6}{16}=\frac38P(BG​∣R)=163​+163​=166​=83​


  1. Find total probability that BBB receives green

By total probability, P(BG)=P(BG∣G)P(G)+P(BG∣R)P(R)P(B_G)=P(B_G\mid G)P(G)+P(B_G\mid R)P(R)P(BG​)=P(BG​∣G)P(G)+P(BG​∣R)P(R)

So, P(BG)=58⋅45+38⋅15P(B_G)=\frac58\cdot \frac45 + \frac38\cdot \frac15P(BG​)=85​⋅54​+83​⋅51​

P(BG)=12+340=2040+340=2340P(B_G)=\frac12 + \frac{3}{40}=\frac{20}{40}+\frac{3}{40}=\frac{23}{40}P(BG​)=21​+403​=4020​+403​=4023​


  1. Apply Bayes' theorem

P(G∣BG)=P(BG∣G)P(G)P(BG)P(G\mid B_G)=\frac{P(B_G\mid G)P(G)}{P(B_G)}P(G∣BG​)=P(BG​)P(BG​∣G)P(G)​

Substitute values: P(G∣BG)=58⋅452340P(G\mid B_G)=\frac{\frac58\cdot \frac45}{\frac{23}{40}}P(G∣BG​)=4023​85​⋅54​​

P(G∣BG)=122340=12⋅4023=2023P(G\mid B_G)=\frac{\frac12}{\frac{23}{40}}=\frac12\cdot \frac{40}{23}=\frac{20}{23}P(G∣BG​)=4023​21​​=21​⋅2340​=2320​


  1. Match with options

2023\frac{20}{23}2320​ corresponds to Option C.


  1. Comparison with stored answer

Stored correct answer: C

Our derived answer: C

So, the answer agrees with the stored correct answer.

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