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Probability question

2012 · Shift 2 · Q26
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  5. /2012 · Shift 2 · Q26

Probability question

2012 · Shift 2 · Q26

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Four fair dice D1,D2,D3{D_1,}{D_2,}{D_3}D1​,D2​,D3​ and D4{D_4}D4​; each having six faces numbered 1,2,3,4,51, 2, 3, 4, 51,2,3,4,5 and 666 are rolled simultaneously. The probability that D4{D_4}D4​ shows a number appearing on one of D1,D2{D_1},{D_2}D1​,D2​ and D3{D_3}D3​ is
  1. A
    91216{{91} \over {216}}21691​
  2. B
    108216{{108} \over {216}}216108​
  3. C
    125216{{125} \over {216}}216125​
  4. D
    127216{{127} \over {216}}216127​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A

Step-by-Step Solution

  1. Determine the Total Number of Outcomes We are rolling four fair six-sided dice (D1,D2,D3,D4D_1, D_2, D_3, D_4D1​,D2​,D3​,D4​). Each die has 6 possible outcomes (numbers 1 to 6). Since the rolls are independent, the total number of possible outcomes in the sample space is: Ntotal=6×6×6×6=64=1296N_{total} = 6 \times 6 \times 6 \times 6 = 6^4 = 1296Ntotal​=6×6×6×6=64=1296

  2. Define the Event of Interest Let EEE be the event that the number shown on die D4D_4D4​ also appears on at least one of the dice D1,D2,D_1, D_2,D1​,D2​, or D3D_3D3​.

  3. Use the Complementary Event Approach Calculating the probability of EEE directly involves the principle of inclusion-exclusion, which can be complex. A simpler approach is to calculate the probability of the complementary event, E′E'E′, and then use the formula P(E)=1−P(E′)P(E) = 1 - P(E')P(E)=1−P(E′).

    The complementary event E′E'E′ is that the number shown on D4D_4D4​ does not appear on any of the dice D1,D2,D_1, D_2,D1​,D2​, or D3D_3D3​.

  4. Calculate the Number of Favorable Outcomes for the Complementary Event (E′E'E′) To count the number of outcomes favorable to E′E'E′, we can fix the outcome of D4D_4D4​ and then count the possibilities for the other dice.

    • There are 6 possible outcomes for the die D4D_4D4​. Let's say the number shown on D4D_4D4​ is kkk, where k∈{1,2,3,4,5,6}k \in \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}k∈{1,2,3,4,5,6}.
    • For the event E′E'E′ to occur, the number on die D1D_1D1​ must not be kkk. This leaves 5 possible outcomes for D1D_1D1​ (any number from the set {1,2,3,4,5,6}∖{k}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\} \setminus \{k\}{1,2,3,4,5,6}∖{k}).
    • Similarly, the number on die D2D_2D2​ must not be kkk. This also leaves 5 possible outcomes for D2D_2D2​.
    • Likewise, the number on die D3D_3D3​ must not be kkk. This leaves 5 possible outcomes for D3D_3D3​.

    The total number of outcomes favorable to E′E'E′, denoted as NE′N_{E'}NE′​, is the product of the number of choices for each die: NE′=(choices for D1)×(choices for D2)×(choices for D3)×(choices for D4)N_{E'} = (\text{choices for } D_1) \times (\text{choices for } D_2) \times (\text{choices for } D_3) \times (\text{choices for } D_4)NE′​=(choices for D1​)×(choices for D2​)×(choices for D3​)×(choices for D4​) NE′=5×5×5×6=53×6=125×6=750N_{E'} = 5 \times 5 \times 5 \times 6 = 5^3 \times 6 = 125 \times 6 = 750NE′​=5×5×5×6=53×6=125×6=750

  5. Calculate the Probability of the Complementary Event (P(E′)P(E')P(E′)) The probability of E′E'E′ is the ratio of its favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes: P(E′)=NE′Ntotal=7501296P(E') = \frac{N_{E'}}{N_{total}} = \frac{750}{1296}P(E′)=Ntotal​NE′​​=1296750​

  6. Calculate the Probability of the Original Event (P(E)P(E)P(E)) Now, we can find the probability of the event EEE using the complement rule: P(E)=1−P(E′)=1−7501296P(E) = 1 - P(E') = 1 - \frac{750}{1296}P(E)=1−P(E′)=1−1296750​ To subtract, we find a common denominator: P(E)=1296−7501296=5461296P(E) = \frac{1296 - 750}{1296} = \frac{546}{1296}P(E)=12961296−750​=1296546​

  7. Simplify the Resulting Fraction Both the numerator and the denominator are divisible by 6: 546÷6=91546 \div 6 = 91546÷6=91 1296÷6=2161296 \div 6 = 2161296÷6=216 So, the simplified probability is: P(E)=91216P(E) = \frac{91}{216}P(E)=21691​ The prime factorization of 91 is 7×137 \times 137×13, and the prime factorization of 216 is 23×332^3 \times 3^323×33. They share no common factors, so the fraction is in its simplest form.

  8. Conclusion The probability that D4D_4D4​ shows a number appearing on one of D1,D2,D_1, D_2,D1​,D2​, and D3D_3D3​ is 91216\frac{91}{216}21691​. This corresponds to option A.

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