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Probability question

2012 · Shift 2 · Q25
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Probability question

2012 · Shift 2 · Q25

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMultiple correct+4 / −1
Let XXX and YYY be two events such that P(X∣Y)=12,P(Y∣X)=13P\left( {X|Y} \right) = {1 \over 2},P\left( {Y|X} \right) = {1 \over 3}P(X∣Y)=21​,P(Y∣X)=31​ and P(X∩Y)=16.P\left( {X \cap Y} \right) = {1 \over 6}.P(X∩Y)=61​. Which of the following is (are) correct ?
  1. A
    P(X∪Y)=23P\left( {X \cup Y} \right) = {2 \over 3}P(X∪Y)=32​
  2. B
    XXX and YYY are independent
  3. C
    XXX and YYY are not independent
  4. D
    P(Xc∩Y)=13P\left( {{X^c} \cap Y} \right) = {1 \over 3}P(Xc∩Y)=31​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A, B

Step-by-step Solution:

We are given the following probabilities for two events X and Y:

  1. P(X∣Y)=12P\left( {X|Y} \right) = {1 \over 2}P(X∣Y)=21​
  2. P(Y∣X)=13P\left( {Y|X} \right) = {1 \over 3}P(Y∣X)=31​
  3. P(X∩Y)=16P\left( {X \cap Y} \right) = {1 \over 6}P(X∩Y)=61​

We will evaluate each option based on these given values.

Step 1: Find P(X) and P(Y)

Using the definition of conditional probability, P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P\left( {A|B} \right) = {{P\left( {A \cap B} \right)} \over {P\left( B \right)}}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)​.

For P(X∣Y)P\left( {X|Y} \right)P(X∣Y): P(X∣Y)=P(X∩Y)P(Y)P\left( {X|Y} \right) = {{P\left( {X \cap Y} \right)} \over {P\left( Y \right)}}P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y)​ 12=16P(Y){1 \over 2} = {{{1 \over 6}} \over {P\left( Y \right)}}21​=P(Y)61​​ P(Y)=1612=16×2=26=13P\left( Y \right) = {{{1 \over 6}} \over {{1 \over 2}}} = {1 \over 6} \times 2 = {2 \over 6} = {1 \over 3}P(Y)=21​61​​=61​×2=62​=31​

For P(Y∣X)P\left( {Y|X} \right)P(Y∣X): P(Y∣X)=P(Y∩X)P(X)P\left( {Y|X} \right) = {{P\left( {Y \cap X} \right)} \over {P\left( X \right)}}P(Y∣X)=P(X)P(Y∩X)​ 13=16P(X){1 \over 3} = {{{1 \over 6}} \over {P\left( X \right)}}31​=P(X)61​​ P(X)=1613=16×3=36=12P\left( X \right) = {{{1 \over 6}} \over {{1 \over 3}}} = {1 \over 6} \times 3 = {3 \over 6} = {1 \over 2}P(X)=31​61​​=61​×3=63​=21​

So, we have P(X)=12P\left( X \right) = {1 \over 2}P(X)=21​ and P(Y)=13P\left( Y \right) = {1 \over 3}P(Y)=31​.


Step 2: Evaluate Option A

The option is P(X∪Y)=23P\left( {X \cup Y} \right) = {2 \over 3}P(X∪Y)=32​. Using the addition rule for probability: P(X∪Y)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(X∩Y)P\left( {X \cup Y} \right) = P\left( X \right) + P\left( Y \right) - P\left( {X \cap Y} \right)P(X∪Y)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(X∩Y) Substituting the values we found and were given: P(X∪Y)=12+13−16P\left( {X \cup Y} \right) = {1 \over 2} + {1 \over 3} - {1 \over 6}P(X∪Y)=21​+31​−61​ To add/subtract the fractions, we find a common denominator, which is 6: P(X∪Y)=36+26−16=3+2−16=46=23P\left( {X \cup Y} \right) = {3 \over 6} + {2 \over 6} - {1 \over 6} = {{3 + 2 - 1} \over 6} = {4 \over 6} = {2 \over 3}P(X∪Y)=63​+62​−61​=63+2−1​=64​=32​ Therefore, Option A is correct.


Step 3: Evaluate Options B and C

Option B states that X and Y are independent. Option C states that X and Y are not independent.

Two events X and Y are independent if and only if P(X∩Y)=P(X)P(Y)P\left( {X \cap Y} \right) = P\left( X \right)P\left( Y \right)P(X∩Y)=P(X)P(Y).

Let's calculate P(X)P(Y)P\left( X \right)P\left( Y \right)P(X)P(Y): P(X)P(Y)=(12)×(13)=16P\left( X \right)P\left( Y \right) = \left( {{1 \over 2}} \right) \times \left( {{1 \over 3}} \right) = {1 \over 6}P(X)P(Y)=(21​)×(31​)=61​ We are given that P(X∩Y)=16P\left( {X \cap Y} \right) = {1 \over 6}P(X∩Y)=61​. Since P(X∩Y)=P(X)P(Y)P\left( {X \cap Y} \right) = P\left( X \right)P\left( Y \right)P(X∩Y)=P(X)P(Y), the events X and Y are independent.

Therefore, Option B is correct and Option C is incorrect.

Alternatively, independence can be checked using conditional probabilities. Events are independent if P(X∣Y)=P(X)P(X|Y) = P(X)P(X∣Y)=P(X) and P(Y∣X)=P(Y)P(Y|X) = P(Y)P(Y∣X)=P(Y). We are given P(X∣Y)=1/2P(X|Y) = 1/2P(X∣Y)=1/2, and we calculated P(X)=1/2P(X) = 1/2P(X)=1/2. They are equal. We are given P(Y∣X)=1/3P(Y|X) = 1/3P(Y∣X)=1/3, and we calculated P(Y)=1/3P(Y) = 1/3P(Y)=1/3. They are equal. This confirms that X and Y are independent.


Step 4: Evaluate Option D

The option is P(Xc∩Y)=13P\left( {{X^c} \cap Y} \right) = {1 \over 3}P(Xc∩Y)=31​. XcX^cXc denotes the complement of event X. The event Xc∩YX^c \cap YXc∩Y means that Y occurs but X does not. The formula for this probability is: P(Xc∩Y)=P(Y)−P(X∩Y)P\left( {{X^c} \cap Y} \right) = P\left( Y \right) - P\left( {X \cap Y} \right)P(Xc∩Y)=P(Y)−P(X∩Y) Substituting the known values: P(Xc∩Y)=13−16=26−16=16P\left( {{X^c} \cap Y} \right) = {1 \over 3} - {1 \over 6} = {2 \over 6} - {1 \over 6} = {1 \over 6}P(Xc∩Y)=31​−61​=62​−61​=61​ Since we found P(Xc∩Y)=16P\left( {{X^c} \cap Y} \right) = {1 \over 6}P(Xc∩Y)=61​, the statement in Option D is incorrect.

Alternatively, since X and Y are independent, XcX^cXc and Y are also independent. Therefore, P(Xc∩Y)=P(Xc)P(Y)P(X^c \cap Y) = P(X^c)P(Y)P(Xc∩Y)=P(Xc)P(Y). P(Xc)=1−P(X)=1−1/2=1/2P(X^c) = 1 - P(X) = 1 - 1/2 = 1/2P(Xc)=1−P(X)=1−1/2=1/2. P(Xc∩Y)=(1/2)×(1/3)=1/6P(X^c \cap Y) = (1/2) \times (1/3) = 1/6P(Xc∩Y)=(1/2)×(1/3)=1/6. This again shows that Option D is incorrect.


Conclusion:

Based on the analysis, the correct options are A and B.

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