- A
- B
- C
- D
View written solutionFree
Correct answer: D
Step-by-step Solution:
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Define the Random Variable and its Distribution Let be the random variable representing the number of tosses required to obtain the first six. The experiment consists of a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, where success is getting a '6' and failure is not getting a '6'. This means follows a geometric distribution.
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Identify Probabilities of Success and Failure The die is fair, so there are 6 equally likely outcomes for each toss.
- The probability of success (getting a six) in a single toss is .
- The probability of failure (not getting a six) in a single toss is .
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State the Probability Mass Function (PMF) The probability of getting the first six on the -th toss is given by the PMF of the geometric distribution:
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Formulate the Conditional Probability We need to find the conditional probability that given that , which is denoted by . The formula for conditional probability is: In our case, event is and event is .
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Determine the Intersection of the Events The event is . The event is . The intersection is the set of outcomes common to both events, which is . Therefore, the intersection event is the same as event , i.e., .
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Rewrite the Conditional Probability Formula Substituting the intersection back into the formula, we get:
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Calculate the Required Probabilities We need to calculate and .
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The event means that the first three tosses did not result in a six. The probability of this is:
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The event means that the first five tosses did not result in a six. (If the first six appears on toss 6 or later, the first 5 must be failures). The probability of this is:
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Compute the Final Conditional Probability Now, we substitute the probabilities from Step 7 into the formula from Step 6:
Alternative Method (using Memoryless Property):
The geometric distribution has a memoryless property, which states that .
Let's apply this to our problem. We want to find . This is equivalent to . Let and . Then . So, .
is the probability that the first two tosses are not a six.
Both methods give the same result.
Conclusion:
The conditional probability that given is . Comparing this with the given options:
A:
B:
C:
D:
The correct option is D.
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