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Probability question

2009 · Shift 1 · Q25
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  5. /2009 · Shift 1 · Q25

Probability question

2009 · Shift 1 · Q25

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+3 / −1
A fair die is tossed repeatedly until a six is obtained. Let X denote the number of tosses required.The conditional probability that X≥6X\ge6X≥6 given X>3X\gt 3X>3 equals :
  1. A
    125216{{125} \over {216}}216125​
  2. B
    25216{{25} \over {216}}21625​
  3. C
    536{{5} \over {36}}365​
  4. D
    2536{{25} \over {36}}3625​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

Step-by-step Solution:

  1. Define the Random Variable and its Distribution Let XXX be the random variable representing the number of tosses required to obtain the first six. The experiment consists of a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, where success is getting a '6' and failure is not getting a '6'. This means XXX follows a geometric distribution.

  2. Identify Probabilities of Success and Failure The die is fair, so there are 6 equally likely outcomes for each toss.

    • The probability of success (getting a six) in a single toss is p=P(6)=16p = P(6) = \frac{1}{6}p=P(6)=61​.
    • The probability of failure (not getting a six) in a single toss is q=1−p=1−16=56q = 1 - p = 1 - \frac{1}{6} = \frac{5}{6}q=1−p=1−61​=65​.
  3. State the Probability Mass Function (PMF) The probability of getting the first six on the kkk-th toss is given by the PMF of the geometric distribution: P(X=k)=qk−1p=(56)k−1(16)P(X=k) = q^{k-1}p = \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{k-1} \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)P(X=k)=qk−1p=(65​)k−1(61​)

  4. Formulate the Conditional Probability We need to find the conditional probability that X≥6X \ge 6X≥6 given that X>3X > 3X>3, which is denoted by P(X≥6∣X>3)P(X \ge 6 | X > 3)P(X≥6∣X>3). The formula for conditional probability is: P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)​ In our case, event AAA is X≥6X \ge 6X≥6 and event BBB is X>3X > 3X>3.

  5. Determine the Intersection of the Events The event AAA is X∈{6,7,8,...}X \in \{6, 7, 8, ...\}X∈{6,7,8,...}. The event BBB is X∈{4,5,6,...}X \in \{4, 5, 6, ...\}X∈{4,5,6,...}. The intersection A∩BA \cap BA∩B is the set of outcomes common to both events, which is X∈{6,7,8,...}X \in \{6, 7, 8, ...\}X∈{6,7,8,...}. Therefore, the intersection event A∩BA \cap BA∩B is the same as event AAA, i.e., X≥6X \ge 6X≥6.

  6. Rewrite the Conditional Probability Formula Substituting the intersection back into the formula, we get: P(X≥6∣X>3)=P(X≥6)P(X>3)P(X \ge 6 | X > 3) = \frac{P(X \ge 6)}{P(X > 3)}P(X≥6∣X>3)=P(X>3)P(X≥6)​

  7. Calculate the Required Probabilities We need to calculate P(X>3)P(X > 3)P(X>3) and P(X≥6)P(X \ge 6)P(X≥6).

    • The event X>3X > 3X>3 means that the first three tosses did not result in a six. The probability of this is: P(X>3)=q×q×q=q3=(56)3P(X > 3) = q \times q \times q = q^3 = \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^3P(X>3)=q×q×q=q3=(65​)3

    • The event X≥6X \ge 6X≥6 means that the first five tosses did not result in a six. (If the first six appears on toss 6 or later, the first 5 must be failures). The probability of this is: P(X≥6)=q×q×q×q×q=q5=(56)5P(X \ge 6) = q \times q \times q \times q \times q = q^5 = \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^5P(X≥6)=q×q×q×q×q=q5=(65​)5

  8. Compute the Final Conditional Probability Now, we substitute the probabilities from Step 7 into the formula from Step 6: P(X≥6∣X>3)=(56)5(56)3P(X \ge 6 | X > 3) = \frac{\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^5}{\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^3}P(X≥6∣X>3)=(65​)3(65​)5​ P(X≥6∣X>3)=(56)5−3=(56)2P(X \ge 6 | X > 3) = \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{5-3} = \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^2P(X≥6∣X>3)=(65​)5−3=(65​)2 P(X≥6∣X>3)=2536P(X \ge 6 | X > 3) = \frac{25}{36}P(X≥6∣X>3)=3625​

Alternative Method (using Memoryless Property):

The geometric distribution has a memoryless property, which states that P(X>s+t∣X>s)=P(X>t)P(X > s+t | X > s) = P(X > t)P(X>s+t∣X>s)=P(X>t).

Let's apply this to our problem. We want to find P(X≥6∣X>3)P(X \ge 6 | X > 3)P(X≥6∣X>3). This is equivalent to P(X>5∣X>3)P(X > 5 | X > 3)P(X>5∣X>3). Let s=3s=3s=3 and t=2t=2t=2. Then s+t=5s+t=5s+t=5. So, P(X>3+2∣X>3)=P(X>2)P(X > 3+2 | X > 3) = P(X > 2)P(X>3+2∣X>3)=P(X>2).

P(X>2)P(X > 2)P(X>2) is the probability that the first two tosses are not a six. P(X>2)=q2=(56)2=2536P(X > 2) = q^2 = \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^2 = \frac{25}{36}P(X>2)=q2=(65​)2=3625​

Both methods give the same result.

Conclusion:

The conditional probability that X≥6X \ge 6X≥6 given X>3X > 3X>3 is 2536\frac{25}{36}3625​. Comparing this with the given options:

A: 125216\frac{125}{216}216125​

B: 25216\frac{25}{216}21625​

C: 536\frac{5}{36}365​

D: 2536\frac{25}{36}3625​

The correct option is D.

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