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Probability question

2025 · 4 Apr · Shift 2 · Q47
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Probability question

2025 · 4 Apr · Shift 2 · Q47

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining 51 cards, n cards are drawn and are found to be spades. If the probability of the lost card to be a spade is 1150\frac{11}{50}5011​, then n is equal to ‾\underline{\hspace{2cm}}​ .
Numerical answer
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Correct answer: 2

  1. Let the event be:

    • LSL_SLS​: the lost card is a spade.
    • AAA: the nnn drawn cards are all spades.

    We are given: P(LS∣A)=1150P(L_S\mid A)=\frac{11}{50}P(LS​∣A)=5011​

  2. Use Bayes' theorem: P(LS∣A)=P(A∣LS)P(LS)P(A)P(L_S\mid A)=\frac{P(A\mid L_S)P(L_S)}{P(A)}P(LS​∣A)=P(A)P(A∣LS​)P(LS​)​

  3. Compute the prior probability: Since one card is lost from a full deck of 52 cards, P(LS)=1352=14P(L_S)=\frac{13}{52}=\frac14P(LS​)=5213​=41​ and P(LSˉ)=3952=34P(L_{\bar S})=\frac{39}{52}=\frac34P(LSˉ​)=5239​=43​

  4. Compute P(A∣LS)P(A\mid L_S)P(A∣LS​): If the lost card is a spade, then among the remaining 51 cards there are only 12 spades. So the probability that all nnn drawn cards are spades is P(A∣LS)=(12n)(51n)P(A\mid L_S)=\frac{\binom{12}{n}}{\binom{51}{n}}P(A∣LS​)=(n51​)(n12​)​

  5. Compute P(A∣LSˉ)P(A\mid L_{\bar S})P(A∣LSˉ​): If the lost card is not a spade, then all 13 spades are still present among the 51 cards. Hence P(A∣LSˉ)=(13n)(51n)P(A\mid L_{\bar S})=\frac{\binom{13}{n}}{\binom{51}{n}}P(A∣LSˉ​)=(n51​)(n13​)​

  6. Now compute total probability P(A)P(A)P(A): P(A)=P(A∣LS)P(LS)+P(A∣LSˉ)P(LSˉ)P(A)=P(A\mid L_S)P(L_S)+P(A\mid L_{\bar S})P(L_{\bar S})P(A)=P(A∣LS​)P(LS​)+P(A∣LSˉ​)P(LSˉ​) P(A)=(12n)(51n)⋅14+(13n)(51n)⋅34P(A)=\frac{\binom{12}{n}}{\binom{51}{n}}\cdot \frac14+\frac{\binom{13}{n}}{\binom{51}{n}}\cdot \frac34P(A)=(n51​)(n12​)​⋅41​+(n51​)(n13​)​⋅43​

  7. Substitute into Bayes' formula: (12n)(51n)⋅14(12n)(51n)⋅14+(13n)(51n)⋅34=1150\frac{\frac{\binom{12}{n}}{\binom{51}{n}}\cdot \frac14}{\frac{\binom{12}{n}}{\binom{51}{n}}\cdot \frac14+\frac{\binom{13}{n}}{\binom{51}{n}}\cdot \frac34}=\frac{11}{50}(n51​)(n12​)​⋅41​+(n51​)(n13​)​⋅43​(n51​)(n12​)​⋅41​​=5011​

    Cancel (51n)\binom{51}{n}(n51​): (12n)⋅14(12n)⋅14+(13n)⋅34=1150\frac{\binom{12}{n}\cdot \frac14}{\binom{12}{n}\cdot \frac14+\binom{13}{n}\cdot \frac34}=\frac{11}{50}(n12​)⋅41​+(n13​)⋅43​(n12​)⋅41​​=5011​

    Multiply numerator and denominator by 4: (12n)(12n)+3(13n)=1150\frac{\binom{12}{n}}{\binom{12}{n}+3\binom{13}{n}}=\frac{11}{50}(n12​)+3(n13​)(n12​)​=5011​

  8. Use the identity (13n)=1313−n(12n)\binom{13}{n}=\frac{13}{13-n}\binom{12}{n}(n13​)=13−n13​(n12​)

    So (12n)(12n)+3⋅1313−n(12n)=1150\frac{\binom{12}{n}}{\binom{12}{n}+3\cdot \frac{13}{13-n}\binom{12}{n}}=\frac{11}{50}(n12​)+3⋅13−n13​(n12​)(n12​)​=5011​

    Cancel (12n)\binom{12}{n}(n12​): 11+3913−n=1150\frac{1}{1+\frac{39}{13-n}}=\frac{11}{50}1+13−n39​1​=5011​

    Simplify: 13−n52−n=1150\frac{13-n}{52-n}=\frac{11}{50}52−n13−n​=5011​

  9. **Solve for nnn: ** 50(13−n)=11(52−n)50(13-n)=11(52-n)50(13−n)=11(52−n) 650−50n=572−11n650-50n=572-11n650−50n=572−11n 78=39n78=39n78=39n n=2n=2n=2

  10. Final answer: 2\boxed{2}2​

  11. Comparison with stored answer: The derived answer is 222, which matches the stored correct answer.

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