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Probability question

2024 · 6 Apr · Shift 1 · Q50
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Probability question

2024 · 6 Apr · Shift 1 · Q50

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A company has two plants AAA and BBB to manufacture motorcycles. 60%60 \%60% motorcycles are manufactured at plant AAA and the remaining are manufactured at plant B.80%B .80 \%B.80% of the motorcycles manufactured at plant AAA are rated of the standard quality, while 90%90 \%90% of the motorcycles manufactured at plant BBB are rated of the standard quality. A motorcycle picked up randomly from the total production is found to be of the standard quality. If ppp is the probability that it was manufactured at plant BBB, then 126p126 p126p is
  1. A
    54
  2. B
    66
  3. C
    56
  4. D
    64
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A

  1. Define the events

Let:

  • AAA = motorcycle manufactured at plant AAA
  • BBB = motorcycle manufactured at plant BBB
  • SSS = motorcycle is of standard quality

Given:

  • P(A)=0.6P(A)=0.6P(A)=0.6
  • P(B)=0.4P(B)=0.4P(B)=0.4
  • P(S∣A)=0.8P(S\mid A)=0.8P(S∣A)=0.8
  • P(S∣B)=0.9P(S\mid B)=0.9P(S∣B)=0.9

We need to find: p=P(B∣S)p=P(B\mid S)p=P(B∣S)

  1. Use Bayes' theorem

P(B∣S)=P(B∩S)P(S)=P(B)P(S∣B)P(A)P(S∣A)+P(B)P(S∣B)P(B\mid S)=\frac{P(B\cap S)}{P(S)}=\frac{P(B)P(S\mid B)}{P(A)P(S\mid A)+P(B)P(S\mid B)}P(B∣S)=P(S)P(B∩S)​=P(A)P(S∣A)+P(B)P(S∣B)P(B)P(S∣B)​

Substitute the values: p=0.4×0.90.6×0.8+0.4×0.9p=\frac{0.4\times 0.9}{0.6\times 0.8+0.4\times 0.9}p=0.6×0.8+0.4×0.90.4×0.9​

  1. Simplify

Numerator: 0.4×0.9=0.360.4\times 0.9=0.360.4×0.9=0.36

Denominator: 0.6×0.8+0.4×0.9=0.48+0.36=0.840.6\times 0.8+0.4\times 0.9=0.48+0.36=0.840.6×0.8+0.4×0.9=0.48+0.36=0.84

So, p=0.360.84=3684=37p=\frac{0.36}{0.84}=\frac{36}{84}=\frac{3}{7}p=0.840.36​=8436​=73​

  1. Find 126p126p126p

126p=126×37=18×3=54126p=126\times \frac{3}{7}=18\times 3=54126p=126×73​=18×3=54

  1. Match with the options

545454 corresponds to Option A.

  1. Comparison with stored answer

Stored correct answer: A

Our derived answer: A

So, the answer agrees with the stored correct answer.

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