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Probability question

2024 · 8 Apr · Shift 2 · Q33
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  5. /2024 · 8 Apr · Shift 2 · Q33

Probability question

2024 · 8 Apr · Shift 2 · Q33

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
There are three bags X,YX, YX,Y and ZZZ. Bag XXX contains 5 one-rupee coins and 4 five-rupee coins; Bag YYY contains 4 one-rupee coins and 5 five-rupee coins and Bag ZZZ contains 3 one-rupee coins and 6 five-rupee coins. A bag is selected at random and a coin drawn from it at random is found to be a one-rupee coin. Then the probability, that it came from bag Y\mathrm{Y}Y, is :
  1. A
    12\frac{1}{2}21​
  2. B
    13\frac{1}{3}31​
  3. C
    512\frac{5}{12}125​
  4. D
    14\frac{1}{4}41​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: B

  1. Define events

Let:

  • X,Y,ZX, Y, ZX,Y,Z be the events that bag X,Y,ZX, Y, ZX,Y,Z is selected.
  • OOO be the event that the drawn coin is a one-rupee coin.

Since a bag is selected at random, P(X)=P(Y)=P(Z)=13.P(X)=P(Y)=P(Z)=\frac{1}{3}.P(X)=P(Y)=P(Z)=31​.

  1. Find conditional probabilities of drawing a one-rupee coin
  • Bag XXX has 555 one-rupee coins and 444 five-rupee coins, total 999 coins. P(O∣X)=59.P(O\mid X)=\frac{5}{9}.P(O∣X)=95​.

  • Bag YYY has 444 one-rupee coins and 555 five-rupee coins, total 999 coins. P(O∣Y)=49.P(O\mid Y)=\frac{4}{9}.P(O∣Y)=94​.

  • Bag ZZZ has 333 one-rupee coins and 666 five-rupee coins, total 999 coins. P(O∣Z)=39=13.P(O\mid Z)=\frac{3}{9}=\frac{1}{3}.P(O∣Z)=93​=31​.

  1. Use Bayes' theorem

We need: P(Y∣O)=P(Y)P(O∣Y)P(X)P(O∣X)+P(Y)P(O∣Y)+P(Z)P(O∣Z).P(Y\mid O)=\frac{P(Y)P(O\mid Y)}{P(X)P(O\mid X)+P(Y)P(O\mid Y)+P(Z)P(O\mid Z)}.P(Y∣O)=P(X)P(O∣X)+P(Y)P(O∣Y)+P(Z)P(O∣Z)P(Y)P(O∣Y)​.

Substitute values: P(Y∣O)=13⋅4913⋅59+13⋅49+13⋅39.P(Y\mid O)=\frac{\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{4}{9}}{\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{5}{9}+\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{4}{9}+\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{3}{9}}.P(Y∣O)=31​⋅95​+31​⋅94​+31​⋅93​31​⋅94​​.

  1. Simplify

Numerator: 13⋅49=427.\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{4}{9}=\frac{4}{27}.31​⋅94​=274​.

Denominator: 13(59+49+39)=13⋅129=13⋅43=49.\frac{1}{3}\left(\frac{5}{9}+\frac{4}{9}+\frac{3}{9}\right)=\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{12}{9}=\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{4}{3}=\frac{4}{9}.31​(95​+94​+93​)=31​⋅912​=31​⋅34​=94​.

Hence, P(Y∣O)=42749=427⋅94=13.P(Y\mid O)=\frac{\frac{4}{27}}{\frac{4}{9}}=\frac{4}{27}\cdot\frac{9}{4}=\frac{1}{3}.P(Y∣O)=94​274​​=274​⋅49​=31​.

  1. Check options
  • A: 12\frac{1}{2}21​ ❌
  • B: 13\frac{1}{3}31​ ✅
  • C: 512\frac{5}{12}125​ ❌
  • D: 14\frac{1}{4}41​ ❌

Therefore, the required probability is 13.\boxed{\frac{1}{3}}.31​​.

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