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Probability question

2021 · 20 Jul · Shift 2 · Q31
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  5. /2021 · 20 Jul · Shift 2 · Q31

Probability question

2021 · 20 Jul · Shift 2 · Q31

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Let A, B and C be three events such that the probability that exactly one of A and B occurs is (1 −-− k), the probability that exactly one of B and C occurs is (1 −-− 2k), the probability that exactly one of C and A occurs is (1 −-− k) and the probability of all A, B and C occur simultaneously is k2, where 0 < k < 1. Then the probability that at least one of A, B and C occur is :
  1. A
    greater than 18{1 \over 8}81​ but less than 14{1 \over 4}41​
  2. B
    greater than 12{1 \over 2}21​
  3. C
    greater than 14{1 \over 4}41​ but less than 12{1 \over 2}21​
  4. D
    exactly equal to 12{1 \over 2}21​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: B

Let us denote the probabilities of the 8 disjoint regions in the Venn diagram as follows:

  • x1=P(A only)x_1 = P(A\text{ only})x1​=P(A only)
  • x2=P(B only)x_2 = P(B\text{ only})x2​=P(B only)
  • x3=P(C only)x_3 = P(C\text{ only})x3​=P(C only)
  • x4=P(A∩B only)x_4 = P(A\cap B\text{ only})x4​=P(A∩B only)
  • x5=P(B∩C only)x_5 = P(B\cap C\text{ only})x5​=P(B∩C only)
  • x6=P(C∩A only)x_6 = P(C\cap A\text{ only})x6​=P(C∩A only)
  • x7=P(A∩B∩C)x_7 = P(A\cap B\cap C)x7​=P(A∩B∩C)
  • x0=P(none)x_0 = P(\text{none})x0​=P(none)

We are given:

  1. Probability that exactly one of AAA and BBB occurs is 1−k1-k1−k.

    “Exactly one of AAA and BBB” means A⊕BA\oplus BA⊕B, i.e. P(A⊕B)=P(A∩Bc)+P(Ac∩B).P(A\oplus B)=P(A\cap B^c)+P(A^c\cap B).P(A⊕B)=P(A∩Bc)+P(Ac∩B). This includes the regions: x1+x6+x2+x5=1−k⋯(1)x_1+x_6+x_2+x_5=1-k \quad \cdots (1)x1​+x6​+x2​+x5​=1−k⋯(1)

  2. Probability that exactly one of BBB and CCC occurs is 1−2k1-2k1−2k: x2+x4+x3+x6=1−2k⋯(2)x_2+x_4+x_3+x_6=1-2k \quad \cdots (2)x2​+x4​+x3​+x6​=1−2k⋯(2)

  3. Probability that exactly one of CCC and AAA occurs is 1−k1-k1−k: x3+x5+x1+x4=1−k⋯(3)x_3+x_5+x_1+x_4=1-k \quad \cdots (3)x3​+x5​+x1​+x4​=1−k⋯(3)

  4. Probability that all three occur simultaneously is: x7=k2.x_7=k^2. x7​=k2.

We need: P(A∪B∪C)=x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6+x7.P(A\cup B\cup C)=x_1+x_2+x_3+x_4+x_5+x_6+x_7.P(A∪B∪C)=x1​+x2​+x3​+x4​+x5​+x6​+x7​.


Step 1: Add the three given equations

Adding (1), (2), and (3):

(x1+x6+x2+x5)+(x2+x4+x3+x6)+(x3+x5+x1+x4)=(1−k)+(1−2k)+(1−k).(x_1+x_6+x_2+x_5)+(x_2+x_4+x_3+x_6)+(x_3+x_5+x_1+x_4) =(1-k)+(1-2k)+(1-k).(x1​+x6​+x2​+x5​)+(x2​+x4​+x3​+x6​)+(x3​+x5​+x1​+x4​)=(1−k)+(1−2k)+(1−k).

So,

2(x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6)=3−4k.2(x_1+x_2+x_3+x_4+x_5+x_6)=3-4k.2(x1​+x2​+x3​+x4​+x5​+x6​)=3−4k.

Hence,

x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6=3−4k2.x_1+x_2+x_3+x_4+x_5+x_6=\frac{3-4k}{2}. x1​+x2​+x3​+x4​+x5​+x6​=23−4k​.

Therefore,

P(A∪B∪C)=3−4k2+k2.P(A\cup B\cup C)=\frac{3-4k}{2}+k^2.P(A∪B∪C)=23−4k​+k2.

So let f(k)=k2−2k+32=(k−1)2+12.f(k)=k^2-2k+\frac{3}{2}=(k-1)^2+\frac{1}{2}.f(k)=k2−2k+23​=(k−1)2+21​.

Thus,

P(A∪B∪C)=(k−1)2+12.P(A\cup B\cup C)=(k-1)^2+\frac{1}{2}.P(A∪B∪C)=(k−1)2+21​.


Step 2: Use the condition 0<k<10<k<10<k<1

Since 0<k<10<k<10<k<1, we have (k−1)2>0.(k-1)^2>0.(k−1)2>0.

Therefore,

P(A∪B∪C)=12+(k−1)2>12.P(A\cup B\cup C)=\frac{1}{2}+(k-1)^2>\frac{1}{2}.P(A∪B∪C)=21​+(k−1)2>21​.

So the probability that at least one of A,B,CA,B,CA,B,C occurs is greater than 12\frac1221​.


Step 3: Match with the options

  • A: greater than 18\frac1881​ but less than 14\frac1441​ — false
  • B: greater than 12\frac1221​ — true
  • C: greater than 14\frac1441​ but less than 12\frac1221​ — false
  • D: exactly equal to 12\frac1221​ — false

Hence, the correct option is:

B\boxed{\text{B}}B​


Verification with stored answer

Stored correct answer: B

Our derived answer: B

They agree.

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