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Probability question

2021 · 25 Feb · Shift 1 · Q24
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  5. /2021 · 25 Feb · Shift 1 · Q24

Probability question

2021 · 25 Feb · Shift 1 · Q24

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
When a missile is fired from a ship, the probability that it is intercepted is 13{1 \over 3}31​ and the probability that the missile hits the target, given that it is not intercepted, is 34{3 \over 4}43​. If three missiles are fired independently from the ship, then the probability that all three hit the target, is :
  1. A
    34{3 \over 4}43​
  2. B
    38{3 \over 8}83​
  3. C
    127{1 \over 27}271​
  4. D
    18{1 \over 8}81​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

  1. Find the probability that one missile hits the target

For a missile to hit the target:

  • it must not be intercepted, and then
  • given that, it must hit the target.

Given: P(intercepted)=13P(\text{intercepted})=\frac{1}{3}P(intercepted)=31​ So, P(not intercepted)=1−13=23P(\text{not intercepted})=1-\frac{1}{3}=\frac{2}{3}P(not intercepted)=1−31​=32​

Also, P(hit∣not intercepted)=34P(\text{hit} \mid \text{not intercepted})=\frac{3}{4}P(hit∣not intercepted)=43​

Therefore, P(one missile hits)=P(not intercepted)⋅P(hit∣not intercepted)P(\text{one missile hits})=P(\text{not intercepted})\cdot P(\text{hit} \mid \text{not intercepted})P(one missile hits)=P(not intercepted)⋅P(hit∣not intercepted) =23⋅34=12=\frac{2}{3}\cdot \frac{3}{4}=\frac{1}{2}=32​⋅43​=21​

  1. Find the probability that all three missiles hit

The three missiles are fired independently, so the events of their hitting are independent.

Thus, P(all three hit)=(12)3=18P(\text{all three hit})=\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3=\frac{1}{8}P(all three hit)=(21​)3=81​

  1. Match with the options

18\frac{1}{8}81​ corresponds to Option D.

Therefore, the correct answer is: 18\boxed{\frac{1}{8}}81​​

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