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Probability question

2021 · 24 Feb · Shift 1 · Q44
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  5. /2021 · 24 Feb · Shift 1 · Q44

Probability question

2021 · 24 Feb · Shift 1 · Q44

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
Let Bi (i = 1, 2, 3) be three independent events in a sample space. The probability that only B1 occur is α\alphaα, only B2 occurs is β\betaβ and only B3 occurs is γ\gammaγ. Let p be the probability that none of the events Bi occurs and these 4 probabilities satisfy the equations (α−2β)p=αβ\left( {\alpha - 2\beta } \right)p = \alpha \beta(α−2β)p=αβ and (β−3γ)p=2βγ\left( {\beta - 3\gamma } \right)p = 2\beta \gamma(β−3γ)p=2βγ(All the probabilities are assumed to lie in the interval (0, 1)). Then P(B1)P(B3){{P\left( {{B_1}} \right)} \over {P\left( {{B_3}} \right)}}P(B3​)P(B1​)​ is equal to ‾\underline{\hspace{2cm}}​.
Numerical answer
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: 6

  1. Write the given probabilities using independence

Let P(B1)=x,P(B2)=y,P(B3)=z.P(B_1)=x,\quad P(B_2)=y,\quad P(B_3)=z.P(B1​)=x,P(B2​)=y,P(B3​)=z. Since the events are independent,

  • Probability that only B1B_1B1​ occurs: α=x(1−y)(1−z).\alpha = x(1-y)(1-z).α=x(1−y)(1−z).
  • Probability that only B2B_2B2​ occurs: β=(1−x)y(1−z).\beta = (1-x)y(1-z).β=(1−x)y(1−z).
  • Probability that only B3B_3B3​ occurs: γ=(1−x)(1−y)z.\gamma = (1-x)(1-y)z.γ=(1−x)(1−y)z.
  • Probability that none occurs: p=(1−x)(1−y)(1−z).p=(1-x)(1-y)(1-z).p=(1−x)(1−y)(1−z).
  1. Relate α,β,γ\alpha,\beta,\gammaα,β,γ with ppp

Divide each by ppp: αp=x1−x,βp=y1−y,γp=z1−z.\frac{\alpha}{p}=\frac{x}{1-x},\qquad \frac{\beta}{p}=\frac{y}{1-y},\qquad \frac{\gamma}{p}=\frac{z}{1-z}.pα​=1−xx​,pβ​=1−yy​,pγ​=1−zz​. Let a=αp,b=βp,c=γp.a=\frac{\alpha}{p},\quad b=\frac{\beta}{p},\quad c=\frac{\gamma}{p}.a=pα​,b=pβ​,c=pγ​. Then α=ap,β=bp,γ=cp.\alpha=ap,\quad \beta=bp,\quad \gamma=cp.α=ap,β=bp,γ=cp.

  1. Use the first given equation

Given (α−2β)p=αβ.(\alpha-2\beta)p=\alpha\beta.(α−2β)p=αβ. Substitute α=ap, β=bp\alpha=ap,\ \beta=bpα=ap, β=bp: (ap−2bp)p=(ap)(bp).(ap-2bp)p=(ap)(bp).(ap−2bp)p=(ap)(bp). (a−2b)p2=abp2.(a-2b)p^2=abp^2.(a−2b)p2=abp2. Since p≠0p\neq 0p=0, a-2b=ab. \tag{1}

  1. Use the second given equation

Given (β−3γ)p=2βγ.(\beta-3\gamma)p=2\beta\gamma.(β−3γ)p=2βγ. Substitute β=bp, γ=cp\beta=bp,\ \gamma=cpβ=bp, γ=cp: (bp−3cp)p=2(bp)(cp).(bp-3cp)p=2(bp)(cp).(bp−3cp)p=2(bp)(cp). (b−3c)p2=2bcp2.(b-3c)p^2=2bcp^2.(b−3c)p2=2bcp2. Hence, b-3c=2bc. \tag{2}

  1. Now express a,b,ca,b,ca,b,c in terms of x,y,zx,y,zx,y,z

From step 2, a=x1−x,b=y1−y,c=z1−z.a=\frac{x}{1-x},\quad b=\frac{y}{1-y},\quad c=\frac{z}{1-z}.a=1−xx​,b=1−yy​,c=1−zz​.

But it is easier to solve (1), (2) directly in a,b,ca,b,ca,b,c.

From (1): a−2b=aba-2b=aba−2b=ab a(1−b)=2ba(1-b)=2ba(1−b)=2b a=\frac{2b}{1-b}. \tag{3}

From (2): b−3c=2bcb-3c=2bcb−3c=2bc b=c(3+2b)b=c(3+2b)b=c(3+2b) c=\frac{b}{3+2b}. \tag{4}

  1. Find P(B1)P(B3)\dfrac{P(B_1)}{P(B_3)}P(B3​)P(B1​)​

Since a=x1−x  ⟹  x=a1+a,a=\frac{x}{1-x} \implies x=\frac{a}{1+a},a=1−xx​⟹x=1+aa​, c=z1−z  ⟹  z=c1+c.c=\frac{z}{1-z} \implies z=\frac{c}{1+c}.c=1−zz​⟹z=1+cc​. Thus P(B1)P(B3)=xz=a1+ac1+c=a(1+c)c(1+a).\frac{P(B_1)}{P(B_3)}=\frac{x}{z}=\frac{\frac{a}{1+a}}{\frac{c}{1+c}}=\frac{a(1+c)}{c(1+a)}.P(B3​)P(B1​)​=zx​=1+cc​1+aa​​=c(1+a)a(1+c)​.

Now use (3) and (4).

First, a=2b1−b,c=b3+2b.a=\frac{2b}{1-b},\qquad c=\frac{b}{3+2b}.a=1−b2b​,c=3+2bb​. Then 1+a=1+2b1−b=1+b1−b,1+a=1+\frac{2b}{1-b}=\frac{1+b}{1-b},1+a=1+1−b2b​=1−b1+b​, 1+c=1+b3+2b=3+3b3+2b=3(1+b)3+2b.1+c=1+\frac{b}{3+2b}=\frac{3+3b}{3+2b}=\frac{3(1+b)}{3+2b}.1+c=1+3+2bb​=3+2b3+3b​=3+2b3(1+b)​.

So, xz=2b1−b⋅3(1+b)3+2bb3+2b⋅1+b1−b.\frac{x}{z}=\frac{\frac{2b}{1-b}\cdot \frac{3(1+b)}{3+2b}}{\frac{b}{3+2b}\cdot \frac{1+b}{1-b}}.zx​=3+2bb​⋅1−b1+b​1−b2b​⋅3+2b3(1+b)​​. Cancel common factors b,(1+b),(1−b),(3+2b)b,(1+b),(1-b),(3+2b)b,(1+b),(1−b),(3+2b): xz=2⋅31=6.\frac{x}{z}=\frac{2\cdot 3}{1}=6.zx​=12⋅3​=6.

Therefore, P(B1)P(B3)=6.\boxed{\frac{P(B_1)}{P(B_3)}=6}. P(B3​)P(B1​)​=6​.

  1. Comparison with stored answer

Stored correct answer = 666. Our derived answer is also 666, so they agree.

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