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Probability question

2021 · 17 Mar · Shift 1 · Q38
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  5. /2021 · 17 Mar · Shift 1 · Q38

Probability question

2021 · 17 Mar · Shift 1 · Q38

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
Let there be three independent events E1, E2 and E3. The probability that only E1 occurs is α\alphaα, only E2 occurs is β\betaβ and only E3 occurs is γ\gammaγ. Let 'p' denote the probability of none of events occurs that satisfies the equations (α−\alpha-α− 2 β\betaβ)p = αβ\alpha\betaαβ and (β−\beta-β− 3 γ\gammaγ)p = 2 βγ\beta\gammaβγ. All the given probabilities are assumed to lie in the interval (0, 1). Then, Probability of occurrence of E1Probability of occurrence of E3\frac{Probability\ of\ occurrence\ of\ E_{1}}{Probability\ of\ occurrence\ of\ E_{3}}Probability of occurrence of E3​Probability of occurrence of E1​​ is equal to ‾\underline{\hspace{2cm}}​.
Numerical answer
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Correct answer: 6

  1. Let the event probabilities be

P(E1)=x,P(E2)=y,P(E3)=zP(E_1)=x,\quad P(E_2)=y,\quad P(E_3)=zP(E1​)=x,P(E2​)=y,P(E3​)=z

Since the events are independent,

  • Probability that only E1E_1E1​ occurs: α=x(1−y)(1−z)\alpha=x(1-y)(1-z)α=x(1−y)(1−z)
  • Probability that only E2E_2E2​ occurs: β=(1−x)y(1−z)\beta=(1-x)y(1-z)β=(1−x)y(1−z)
  • Probability that only E3E_3E3​ occurs: γ=(1−x)(1−y)z\gamma=(1-x)(1-y)zγ=(1−x)(1−y)z
  • Probability that none occurs: p=(1−x)(1−y)(1−z)p=(1-x)(1-y)(1-z)p=(1−x)(1−y)(1−z)
  1. Use the given relations to simplify ratios

We are given:

(α−2β)p=αβ(\alpha-2\beta)p=\alpha\beta(α−2β)p=αβ (β−3γ)p=2βγ(\beta-3\gamma)p=2\beta\gamma(β−3γ)p=2βγ

Now express α,β,γ\alpha,\beta,\gammaα,β,γ in terms of ppp.

From p=(1−x)(1−y)(1−z),p=(1-x)(1-y)(1-z),p=(1−x)(1−y)(1−z), we get

α=x(1−y)(1−z)=x1−xp\alpha=x(1-y)(1-z)=\frac{x}{1-x}pα=x(1−y)(1−z)=1−xx​p β=(1−x)y(1−z)=y1−yp\beta=(1-x)y(1-z)=\frac{y}{1-y}pβ=(1−x)y(1−z)=1−yy​p γ=(1−x)(1−y)z=z1−zp\gamma=(1-x)(1-y)z=\frac{z}{1-z}pγ=(1−x)(1−y)z=1−zz​p

Let a=x1−x,b=y1−y,c=z1−za=\frac{x}{1-x},\quad b=\frac{y}{1-y},\quad c=\frac{z}{1-z}a=1−xx​,b=1−yy​,c=1−zz​ Then α=ap,β=bp,γ=cp\alpha=ap,\quad \beta=bp,\quad \gamma=cpα=ap,β=bp,γ=cp

  1. Substitute into the first equation

(α−2β)p=αβ(\alpha-2\beta)p=\alpha\beta(α−2β)p=αβ becomes

(ap−2bp)p=(ap)(bp)(ap-2bp)p=(ap)(bp)(ap−2bp)p=(ap)(bp) (a−2b)p2=abp2(a-2b)p^2=abp^2(a−2b)p2=abp2 Since p∈(0,1)p\in(0,1)p∈(0,1), p2>0p^2>0p2>0, so

a−2b=aba-2b=aba−2b=ab

Thus,

a=b(a+2)a=b(a+2)a=b(a+2) b=aa+2b=\frac{a}{a+2}b=a+2a​

  1. Substitute into the second equation

(β−3γ)p=2βγ(\beta-3\gamma)p=2\beta\gamma(β−3γ)p=2βγ becomes

(bp−3cp)p=2(bp)(cp)(bp-3cp)p=2(bp)(cp)(bp−3cp)p=2(bp)(cp) (b−3c)p2=2bcp2(b-3c)p^2=2bcp^2(b−3c)p2=2bcp2 So,

b−3c=2bcb-3c=2bcb−3c=2bc

Hence,

b=c(2b+3)b=c(2b+3)b=c(2b+3) c=b2b+3c=\frac{b}{2b+3}c=2b+3b​

  1. Find the required ratio

We need

P(E1)P(E3)=xz\frac{P(E_1)}{P(E_3)}=\frac{x}{z}P(E3​)P(E1​)​=zx​

Now,

a=x1−x  ⟹  x=a1+aa=\frac{x}{1-x} \implies x=\frac{a}{1+a}a=1−xx​⟹x=1+aa​ c=z1−z  ⟹  z=c1+cc=\frac{z}{1-z} \implies z=\frac{c}{1+c}c=1−zz​⟹z=1+cc​

So,

xz=a1+ac1+c=a(1+c)c(1+a)\frac{x}{z}=\frac{\frac{a}{1+a}}{\frac{c}{1+c}}=\frac{a(1+c)}{c(1+a)}zx​=1+cc​1+aa​​=c(1+a)a(1+c)​

Instead of solving fully for a,b,ca,b,ca,b,c, use the relations.

From a−2b=aba-2b=aba−2b=ab we get a=2b1−ba=\frac{2b}{1-b}a=1−b2b​

From b−3c=2bcb-3c=2bcb−3c=2bc we get b=3c1−2cb=\frac{3c}{1-2c}b=1−2c3c​

Substitute into aaa:

a=2⋅3c1−2c1−3c1−2ca=\frac{2\cdot \frac{3c}{1-2c}}{1-\frac{3c}{1-2c}}a=1−1−2c3c​2⋅1−2c3c​​

Simplify denominator:

1−3c1−2c=1−2c−3c1−2c=1−5c1−2c1-\frac{3c}{1-2c}=\frac{1-2c-3c}{1-2c}=\frac{1-5c}{1-2c}1−1−2c3c​=1−2c1−2c−3c​=1−2c1−5c​

Therefore,

a=6c1−2c1−5c1−2c=6c1−5ca=\frac{\frac{6c}{1-2c}}{\frac{1-5c}{1-2c}}=\frac{6c}{1-5c}a=1−2c1−5c​1−2c6c​​=1−5c6c​

Now compute:

x=a1+a=6c1−5c1+6c1−5c=6c1+cx=\frac{a}{1+a}=\frac{\frac{6c}{1-5c}}{1+\frac{6c}{1-5c}}=\frac{6c}{1+c}x=1+aa​=1+1−5c6c​1−5c6c​​=1+c6c​

Also,

z=c1+cz=\frac{c}{1+c}z=1+cc​

Hence,

xz=6c1+cc1+c=6\frac{x}{z}=\frac{\frac{6c}{1+c}}{\frac{c}{1+c}}=6zx​=1+cc​1+c6c​​=6

  1. Final answer

P(E1)P(E3)=6\frac{P(E_1)}{P(E_3)}=6P(E3​)P(E1​)​=6

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