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Probability question

2019 · 12 Jan · Shift 1 · Q28
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  5. /2019 · 12 Jan · Shift 1 · Q28

Probability question

2019 · 12 Jan · Shift 1 · Q28

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
In a random experiment, a fair die is rolled until two fours are obtained in succession. The probability that the experiment will end in the fifth throw of the die is equal to :
  1. A
    20065{{200} \over {{6^5}}}65200​
  2. B
    22565{{225} \over {{6^5}}}65225​
  3. C
    15065{{150} \over {{6^5}}}65150​
  4. D
    17565{{175} \over {{6^5}}}65175​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

  1. Interpret the event

We roll a fair die until the first time two consecutive fours appear.

For the experiment to end on the 5th throw, we need:

  • throws 4 and 5 to be 4,44,44,4,
  • and there must be no earlier occurrence of two consecutive fours in throws 1 to 4.

So we want sequences (x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)(x_1,x_2,x_3,x_4,x_5)(x1​,x2​,x3​,x4​,x5​) such that: x4=4,x5=4x_4=4,\quad x_5=4x4​=4,x5​=4 and among pairs (x1,x2)(x_1,x_2)(x1​,x2​), (x2,x3)(x_2,x_3)(x2​,x3​), (x3,x4)(x_3,x_4)(x3​,x4​), none is (4,4)(4,4)(4,4).


  1. Conditions on the first three throws

Since x4=4x_4=4x4​=4, to avoid an earlier ending at throw 4, we must have: x3≠4x_3\ne 4x3​=4 Otherwise (x3,x4)=(4,4)(x_3,x_4)=(4,4)(x3​,x4​)=(4,4) would already end the experiment at throw 4.

Also, among throws 1,2,3, we must avoid consecutive fours, so: (x1,x2)≠(4,4),(x2,x3)≠(4,4)(x_1,x_2) \ne (4,4), \quad (x_2,x_3) \ne (4,4)(x1​,x2​)=(4,4),(x2​,x3​)=(4,4) But because x3≠4x_3\ne 4x3​=4, the pair (x2,x3)(x_2,x_3)(x2​,x3​) can never be (4,4)(4,4)(4,4). So the only remaining restriction is: x3≠4and(x1,x2)≠(4,4)x_3\ne 4 \quad \text{and} \quad (x_1,x_2)\ne(4,4)x3​=4and(x1​,x2​)=(4,4)


  1. Count favorable sequences

We count valid choices for (x1,x2,x3)(x_1,x_2,x_3)(x1​,x2​,x3​).

  • x3≠4x_3\ne 4x3​=4: this gives 555 choices.
  • (x1,x2)(x_1,x_2)(x1​,x2​) can be any of 6×6=366\times 6=366×6=36 pairs except (4,4)(4,4)(4,4): so 353535 choices.

Hence favorable sequences: 35×5=17535\times 5 = 17535×5=175

Since x4=4x_4=4x4​=4 and x5=4x_5=4x5​=4 are fixed, total favorable full sequences of length 5 are: 175175175

Total possible sequences of 5 die throws: 656^565

Therefore, P(experiment ends on 5th throw)=17565P(\text{experiment ends on 5th throw})=\frac{175}{6^5}P(experiment ends on 5th throw)=65175​


  1. Match with options

17565\frac{175}{6^5}65175​ corresponds to Option D.


  1. Comparison with stored answer

Stored correct answer: D

Our derived answer: D

So they agree.

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