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Probability question

2018 · 15 Apr · Shift 1 · Q36
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Probability question

2018 · 15 Apr · Shift 1 · Q36

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A box 'A' contains 222 white, 333 red and 222 black balls. Another box 'B' contains 444 white, 222 red and 333 black balls. If two balls are drawn at random, without eplacement, from a randomly selected box and one ball turns out to be white while the other ball turns out to be red, then the probability that both balls are drawn from box 'B' is :
  1. A
    916{9 \over {16}}169​
  2. B
    716{7 \over {16}}167​
  3. C
    932{9 \over {32}}329​
  4. D
    78{7 \over {8}}87​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: B

  1. Let the event of choosing box AAA or BBB

Since the box is selected randomly, P(A)=P(B)=12.P(A)=P(B)=\frac12.P(A)=P(B)=21​.

Let EEE be the event that in two draws (without replacement), one ball is white and the other is red.

We need to find: P(B∣E).P(B\mid E).P(B∣E).

Using Bayes' theorem, P(B∣E)=P(B)P(E∣B)P(A)P(E∣A)+P(B)P(E∣B).P(B\mid E)=\frac{P(B)P(E\mid B)}{P(A)P(E\mid A)+P(B)P(E\mid B)}.P(B∣E)=P(A)P(E∣A)+P(B)P(E∣B)P(B)P(E∣B)​.


  1. Compute P(E∣A)P(E\mid A)P(E∣A)

Box AAA contains:

  • 222 white
  • 333 red
  • 222 black

Total balls in box AAA: 7.7.7.

We want probability of getting one white and one red in two draws without replacement.

This can happen in two orders:

  • white then red
  • red then white

So, P(E∣A)=27⋅36+37⋅26.P(E\mid A)=\frac{2}{7}\cdot\frac{3}{6}+\frac{3}{7}\cdot\frac{2}{6}.P(E∣A)=72​⋅63​+73​⋅62​.

P(E∣A)=642+642=1242=27.P(E\mid A)=\frac{6}{42}+\frac{6}{42}=\frac{12}{42}=\frac{2}{7}.P(E∣A)=426​+426​=4212​=72​.


  1. Compute P(E∣B)P(E\mid B)P(E∣B)

Box BBB contains:

  • 444 white
  • 222 red
  • 333 black

Total balls in box BBB: 9.9.9.

Again, one white and one red can occur in two orders: P(E∣B)=49⋅28+29⋅48.P(E\mid B)=\frac{4}{9}\cdot\frac{2}{8}+\frac{2}{9}\cdot\frac{4}{8}.P(E∣B)=94​⋅82​+92​⋅84​.

P(E∣B)=872+872=1672=29.P(E\mid B)=\frac{8}{72}+\frac{8}{72}=\frac{16}{72}=\frac{2}{9}.P(E∣B)=728​+728​=7216​=92​.


  1. Apply Bayes' theorem

P(B∣E)=12⋅2912⋅27+12⋅29.P(B\mid E)=\frac{\frac12\cdot\frac29}{\frac12\cdot\frac27+\frac12\cdot\frac29}.P(B∣E)=21​⋅72​+21​⋅92​21​⋅92​​.

Cancel 12\frac1221​ from numerator and denominator: P(B∣E)=2927+29.P(B\mid E)=\frac{\frac29}{\frac27+\frac29}.P(B∣E)=72​+92​92​​.

Now, 27+29=18+1463=3263.\frac27+\frac29=\frac{18+14}{63}=\frac{32}{63}.72​+92​=6318+14​=6332​.

Thus, P(B\mid E)=\frac{2}{9}\cdot\frac{63}{32}= rac{14}{32}= rac{7}{16}.


  1. Check options

The correct probability is: 716\boxed{\frac{7}{16}}167​​

So the correct option is B.

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