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Probability question

2019 · 12 Apr · Shift 2 · Q40
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Probability question

2019 · 12 Apr · Shift 2 · Q40

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A person throws two fair dice. He wins Rs. 15 for throwing a doublet (same numbers on the two dice), wins Rs. 12 when the throw results in the sum of 9, and loses Rs. 6 for any other outcome on the throw. Then the expected gain/loss (in Rs.) of the person is :
  1. A
    14{1 \over 4}41​ loss
  2. B
    12{1 \over 2}21​ gain
  3. C
    12{1 \over 2}21​ loss
  4. D
    2 gain
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Total possible outcomes

When two fair dice are thrown, the total number of equally likely outcomes is: 363636

  1. Find the outcomes for each case

(i) Doublet

A doublet means both dice show the same number: (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6) So, number of doublets = 666

(ii) Sum of 9

The outcomes giving sum 999 are: (3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3) So, number of outcomes = 444

Note that none of these is a doublet, since no doublet has sum 999.

(iii) Any other outcome

Remaining outcomes: 36−6−4=2636-6-4=2636−6−4=26

  1. Probabilities
  • Probability of doublet: P(doublet)=636=16P(\text{doublet})=\frac{6}{36}=\frac{1}{6}P(doublet)=366​=61​

  • Probability of sum 999: P(sum 9)=436=19P(\text{sum }9)=\frac{4}{36}=\frac{1}{9}P(sum 9)=364​=91​

  • Probability of any other outcome: P(other)=2636=1318P(\text{other})=\frac{26}{36}=\frac{13}{18}P(other)=3626​=1813​

  1. Expected value

Let the expected gain be EEE.

Then E=15(16)+12(19)−6(1318)E=15\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)+12\left(\frac{1}{9}\right)-6\left(\frac{13}{18}\right)E=15(61​)+12(91​)−6(1813​)

Now compute each term: 15⋅16=156=5215\cdot \frac{1}{6}=\frac{15}{6}=\frac{5}{2}15⋅61​=615​=25​ 12⋅19=129=4312\cdot \frac{1}{9}=\frac{12}{9}=\frac{4}{3}12⋅91​=912​=34​ 6⋅1318=1336\cdot \frac{13}{18}=\frac{13}{3}6⋅1813​=313​

So, E=52+43−133E=\frac{5}{2}+\frac{4}{3}-\frac{13}{3}E=25​+34​−313​ E=52−3E=\frac{5}{2}-3E=25​−3 E=5−62=−12E=\frac{5-6}{2}=-\frac{1}{2}E=25−6​=−21​

  1. Interpretation

Since the expected value is negative, the person has an expected loss of: 12 rupee\frac{1}{2} \text{ rupee}21​ rupee

  1. Option check
  • A: 14\frac{1}{4}41​ loss →\to→ incorrect
  • B: 12\frac{1}{2}21​ gain →\to→ incorrect
  • C: 12\frac{1}{2}21​ loss →\to→ correct
  • D: 222 gain →\to→ incorrect
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