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Probability question

2017 · 8 Apr · Shift 1 · Q37
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Probability question

2017 · 8 Apr · Shift 1 · Q37

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Three persons P, Q and R independently try to hit a target. I the probabilities of their hitting the target are 34,12{3 \over 4},{1 \over 2}43​,21​ and 58{5 \over 8}85​ respectively, then the probability that the target is hit by P or Q but not by R is :
  1. A
    2164{{21} \over {64}}6421​
  2. B
    964{{9} \over {64}}649​
  3. C
    1564{{15} \over {64}}6415​
  4. D
    3964{{39} \over {64}}6439​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: A

  1. Let the events be:

    • PPP: person PPP hits the target, with probability P(P)=34P(P)=\frac{3}{4}P(P)=43​
    • QQQ: person QQQ hits the target, with probability P(Q)=12P(Q)=\frac{1}{2}P(Q)=21​
    • RRR: person RRR hits the target, with probability P(R)=58P(R)=\frac{5}{8}P(R)=85​

    Since they try independently, their miss probabilities are: P(P′)=1−34=14,P(Q′)=1−12=12,P(R′)=1−58=38P(P')=1-\frac{3}{4}=\frac{1}{4}, \quad P(Q')=1-\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{2}, \quad P(R')=1-\frac{5}{8}=\frac{3}{8}P(P′)=1−43​=41​,P(Q′)=1−21​=21​,P(R′)=1−85​=83​

  2. We need the probability that the target is hit by PPP or QQQ but not by RRR.

    This means: (P∪Q)∩R′(P \cup Q) \cap R'(P∪Q)∩R′

  3. Because RRR is independent of PPP and QQQ, we can write: P((P∪Q)∩R′)=P(P∪Q)⋅P(R′)P\big((P \cup Q) \cap R'\big)=P(P \cup Q)\cdot P(R')P((P∪Q)∩R′)=P(P∪Q)⋅P(R′)

  4. First compute P(P∪Q)P(P \cup Q)P(P∪Q): P(P∪Q)=P(P)+P(Q)−P(P∩Q)P(P \cup Q)=P(P)+P(Q)-P(P\cap Q)P(P∪Q)=P(P)+P(Q)−P(P∩Q) Since PPP and QQQ are independent, P(P∩Q)=P(P)P(Q)=34⋅12=38P(P\cap Q)=P(P)P(Q)=\frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{1}{2}=\frac{3}{8}P(P∩Q)=P(P)P(Q)=43​⋅21​=83​ Therefore, P(P∪Q)=34+12−38P(P \cup Q)=\frac{3}{4}+\frac{1}{2}-\frac{3}{8}P(P∪Q)=43​+21​−83​ =68+48−38=78=\frac{6}{8}+\frac{4}{8}-\frac{3}{8}=\frac{7}{8}=86​+84​−83​=87​

  5. Now multiply by P(R′)=38P(R')=\frac{3}{8}P(R′)=83​: P((P∪Q)∩R′)=78⋅38=2164P\big((P \cup Q) \cap R'\big)=\frac{7}{8}\cdot\frac{3}{8}=\frac{21}{64}P((P∪Q)∩R′)=87​⋅83​=6421​

  6. Checking options:

    • A: 2164\frac{21}{64}6421​ ✅
    • B: 964\frac{9}{64}649​
    • C: 1564\frac{15}{64}6415​
    • D: 3964\frac{39}{64}6439​

Therefore, the correct answer is: 2164\boxed{\frac{21}{64}}6421​​ which corresponds to Option A.

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