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Probability question

2019 · 10 Jan · Shift 1 · Q29
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  5. /2019 · 10 Jan · Shift 1 · Q29

Probability question

2019 · 10 Jan · Shift 1 · Q29

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
An unbiased coin is tossed. If the outcome is a head then a pair of unbiased dice is rolled and the sum of the numbers obtained on them is noted. If the toss of the coin results in tail then a card from a well-shuffled pack of nine cards numbered 1, 2, 3, ……, 9 is randomly picked and the number on the card is noted. The probability that the noted number is either 7 or 8 is :
  1. A
    1936{{19} \over {36}}3619​
  2. B
    1572{{15} \over {72}}7215​
  3. C
    1336{{13} \over {36}}3613​
  4. D
    1972{{19} \over {72}}7219​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

  1. Let us use total probability based on the coin toss.
  • Probability of Head, P(H)=12P(H)=\dfrac12P(H)=21​
  • Probability of Tail, P(T)=12P(T)=\dfrac12P(T)=21​

We need: P(noted number is 7 or 8)P(\text{noted number is }7\text{ or }8)P(noted number is 7 or 8)

  1. Case 1: Coin shows Head

Then two fair dice are rolled, and we note their sum.

Total outcomes for two dice: 363636

Favourable outcomes for sum 777: (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) So, 6 outcomes6\text{ outcomes}6 outcomes

Favourable outcomes for sum 888: (2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2)(2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2)(2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2) So, 5 outcomes5\text{ outcomes}5 outcomes

Hence, P(7 or 8∣H)=6+536=1136P(7\text{ or }8\mid H)=\frac{6+5}{36}=\frac{11}{36}P(7 or 8∣H)=366+5​=3611​

  1. Case 2: Coin shows Tail

Then one card is chosen from cards numbered 111 to 999.

Total cards: 999

Favourable cards: 7,87,87,8 So, 2 favourable cards2\text{ favourable cards}2 favourable cards

Hence, P(7 or 8∣T)=29P(7\text{ or }8\mid T)=\frac{2}{9}P(7 or 8∣T)=92​

  1. Apply the law of total probability:

P(7 or 8)=P(H) P(7 or 8∣H)+P(T) P(7 or 8∣T)P(7\text{ or }8)=P(H)\,P(7\text{ or }8\mid H)+P(T)\,P(7\text{ or }8\mid T)P(7 or 8)=P(H)P(7 or 8∣H)+P(T)P(7 or 8∣T)

Substitute values: P=12⋅1136+12⋅29P=\frac12\cdot\frac{11}{36}+\frac12\cdot\frac{2}{9}P=21​⋅3611​+21​⋅92​

Convert to common denominator: 12⋅29=19=436\frac12\cdot\frac{2}{9}=\frac{1}{9}=\frac{4}{36}21​⋅92​=91​=364​

So, P=1172+1672=2772P=\frac{11}{72}+\frac{16}{72}=\frac{27}{72}P=7211​+7216​=7227​ Wait carefully — let us recompute properly:

12⋅1136=1172\frac12\cdot\frac{11}{36}=\frac{11}{72}21​⋅3611​=7211​ 12⋅29=19=872\frac12\cdot\frac{2}{9}=\frac{1}{9}=\frac{8}{72}21​⋅92​=91​=728​

Therefore, P=1172+872=1972P=\frac{11}{72}+\frac{8}{72}=\frac{19}{72}P=7211​+728​=7219​

  1. Hence the required probability is 1972\boxed{\frac{19}{72}}7219​​

So the correct option is D.

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