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Probability question

2019 · 10 Apr · Shift 1 · Q23
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Probability question

2019 · 10 Apr · Shift 1 · Q23

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If two families have two children each, then the conditional probability that all children are girls given that at least two are girls is :
  1. A
    110{1 \over {10}}101​
  2. B
    117{1 \over {17}}171​
  3. C
    111{1 \over {11}}111​
  4. D
    112{1 \over {12}}121​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Model the sample space

Each family has 222 children, so for one family the possible ordered outcomes are: BB, BG, GB, GGBB,\ BG,\ GB,\ GGBB, BG, GB, GG Each is equally likely.

For two families, we can think of the total as 444 children grouped into two pairs. Since each child is independently boy/girl with probability 12\tfrac1221​, there are 24=162^4=1624=16 equally likely outcomes.

  1. Define the events

Let:

  • AAA = "all children are girls"
  • BBB = "at least two children are girls"

We need: P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)​

Since if all 444 children are girls, then certainly at least two are girls, we have A⊆BA\subseteq BA⊆B So, P(A∣B)=P(A)P(B)P(A\mid B)=\frac{P(A)}{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A)​

  1. Find P(A)P(A)P(A)

“All children are girls” means all 444 children are girls: GGGGGGGGGGGG This is just 111 outcome out of 161616. So, P(A)=116P(A)=\frac{1}{16}P(A)=161​

  1. Find P(B)P(B)P(B)

“At least two girls” means number of girls among 444 children is 2,3,2,3,2,3, or 444.

Total favorable outcomes: (42)+(43)+(44)=6+4+1=11\binom{4}{2}+\binom{4}{3}+\binom{4}{4}=6+4+1=11(24​)+(34​)+(44​)=6+4+1=11 Thus, P(B)=1116P(B)=\frac{11}{16}P(B)=1611​

  1. Compute the conditional probability

P(A∣B)=1161116=111P(A\mid B)=\frac{\frac{1}{16}}{\frac{11}{16}}=\frac{1}{11}P(A∣B)=1611​161​​=111​

  1. Match with the options

111\frac{1}{11}111​ corresponds to Option C.

  1. Comparison with stored correct answer

Stored correct answer: C

Our derived answer is also C, so they agree.

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