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Probability question

2010 · Shift 0 · Q32
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Probability question

2010 · Shift 0 · Q32

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Four numbers are chosen at random (without replacement) from the set {1,2,3,....20}.\left\{ {1,2,3,....20} \right\}.{1,2,3,....20}. Statement - 1: The probability that the chosen numbers when arranged in some order will form an AP is 185.{1 \over {85}}.851​. Statement - 2: If the four chosen numbers form an AP, then the set of all possible values of common difference is (±1,±2,±3,±4,±5).\left( { \pm 1, \pm 2, \pm 3, \pm 4, \pm 5} \right).(±1,±2,±3,±4,±5).
  1. A
    Statement - 1 is true, Statement - 2 is true; Statement - 2 is not a correct explanation for Statement - 1.
  2. B
    Statement - 1 is true, Statement - 2 is false.
  3. C
    Statement - 1 is false, Statement -2 is true.
  4. D
    Statement - 1 is true, Statement - 2 is true; Statement - 2 is a correct explanation for Statement - 1.
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: B

  1. Total number of ways to choose 4 numbers from {1,2,3,…,20}\{1,2,3,\dots,20\}{1,2,3,…,20}:
(204)=4845\binom{20}{4}=4845(420​)=4845
  1. Condition for 4 chosen numbers to form an AP

If 4 distinct numbers can be arranged in AP, then they must be of the form

a, a+d, a+2d, a+3da,\ a+d,\ a+2d,\ a+3da, a+d, a+2d, a+3d

with d≠0d\neq 0d=0 and all terms lying in {1,2,…,20}\{1,2,\dots,20\}{1,2,…,20}.

Since order of selection does not matter, we only count increasing APs with d>0d>0d>0.

  1. Possible values of common difference

For the largest term to be at most 20,

a+3d≤20a+3d\le 20a+3d≤20

Since a≥1a\ge 1a≥1,

1+3d≤20  ⟹  3d≤19  ⟹  d≤61+3d\le 20 \implies 3d\le 19 \implies d\le 61+3d≤20⟹3d≤19⟹d≤6

So possible positive integer values are

d=1,2,3,4,5,6d=1,2,3,4,5,6d=1,2,3,4,5,6

Hence Statement-2, which says the possible values are (±1,±2,±3,±4,±5)\left(\pm1,\pm2,\pm3,\pm4,\pm5\right)(±1,±2,±3,±4,±5), is false because d=±6d=\pm 6d=±6 is also possible. For example,

1,7,13,191,7,13,191,7,13,19

is an AP with common difference 666.

  1. Count the number of 4-term APs

For each fixed positive ddd, the first term aaa can be chosen such that

a+3d≤20  ⟹  a≤20−3da+3d\le 20 \implies a\le 20-3da+3d≤20⟹a≤20−3d

So number of APs for each ddd is 20−3d20-3d20−3d.

Now compute:

  • For d=1d=1d=1: 20−3=1720-3=1720−3=17
  • For d=2d=2d=2: 20−6=1420-6=1420−6=14
  • For d=3d=3d=3: 20−9=1120-9=1120−9=11
  • For d=4d=4d=4: 20−12=820-12=820−12=8
  • For d=5d=5d=5: 20−15=520-15=520−15=5
  • For d=6d=6d=6: 20−18=220-18=220−18=2

Total favorable selections:

17+14+11+8+5+2=5717+14+11+8+5+2=5717+14+11+8+5+2=57
  1. Required probability
P=57(204)=574845P=\frac{57}{\binom{20}{4}}=\frac{57}{4845}P=(420​)57​=484557​

Simplify:

574845=191615=185\frac{57}{4845}=\frac{19}{1615}=\frac{1}{85}484557​=161519​=851​

So Statement-1 is true.

  1. Conclusion about the statements
  • Statement-1: True
  • Statement-2: False

Therefore the correct option is:

B\boxed{\text{B}}B​
  1. Comparison with stored correct answer

Stored correct answer = B.

My derived answer also = B. Hence they agree.

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