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Probability question

2025 · 28 Jan · Shift 2 · Q27
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Probability question

2025 · 28 Jan · Shift 2 · Q27

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Bag B1B_1B1​ contains 6 white and 4 blue balls, Bag B2B_2B2​ contains 4 white and 6 blue balls, and Bag B3B_3B3​ contains 5 white and 5 blue balls. One of the bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball is white, then the probability that the ball is drawn from Bag B2B_2B2​ is:
  1. A
    25\frac{2}{5}52​
  2. B
    415\frac{4}{15}154​
  3. C
    13\frac{1}{3}31​
  4. D
    23\frac{2}{3}32​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: B

  1. Define events

Let:

  • EiE_iEi​ = event that bag BiB_iBi​ is selected, for i=1,2,3i=1,2,3i=1,2,3
  • WWW = event that the drawn ball is white

Since one of the three bags is selected at random, P(E1)=P(E2)=P(E3)=13P(E_1)=P(E_2)=P(E_3)=\frac{1}{3}P(E1​)=P(E2​)=P(E3​)=31​

  1. Compute probability of drawing a white ball from each bag
  • For B1B_1B1​: 6 white, 4 blue, total 10 P(W∣E1)=610=35P(W\mid E_1)=\frac{6}{10}=\frac{3}{5}P(W∣E1​)=106​=53​

  • For B2B_2B2​: 4 white, 6 blue, total 10 P(W∣E2)=410=25P(W\mid E_2)=\frac{4}{10}=\frac{2}{5}P(W∣E2​)=104​=52​

  • For B3B_3B3​: 5 white, 5 blue, total 10 P(W∣E3)=510=12P(W\mid E_3)=\frac{5}{10}=\frac{1}{2}P(W∣E3​)=105​=21​

  1. Find total probability of getting a white ball

By the law of total probability, P(W)=P(E1)P(W∣E1)+P(E2)P(W∣E2)+P(E3)P(W∣E3)P(W)=P(E_1)P(W\mid E_1)+P(E_2)P(W\mid E_2)+P(E_3)P(W\mid E_3)P(W)=P(E1​)P(W∣E1​)+P(E2​)P(W∣E2​)+P(E3​)P(W∣E3​)

So, P(W)=13⋅35+13⋅25+13⋅12P(W)=\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{3}{5}+\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{2}{5}+\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{1}{2}P(W)=31​⋅53​+31​⋅52​+31​⋅21​

P(W)=15+215+16P(W)=\frac{1}{5}+\frac{2}{15}+\frac{1}{6}P(W)=51​+152​+61​

Taking LCM 303030, P(W)=630+430+530=1530=12P(W)=\frac{6}{30}+\frac{4}{30}+\frac{5}{30}=\frac{15}{30}=\frac{1}{2}P(W)=306​+304​+305​=3015​=21​

  1. Apply Bayes' theorem

We need P(E2∣W)=P(E2)P(W∣E2)P(W)P(E_2\mid W)=\frac{P(E_2)P(W\mid E_2)}{P(W)}P(E2​∣W)=P(W)P(E2​)P(W∣E2​)​

Substitute values: P(E2∣W)=13⋅2512P(E_2\mid W)=\frac{\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{2}{5}}{\frac{1}{2}}P(E2​∣W)=21​31​⋅52​​

=215⋅2=415=\frac{2}{15}\cdot 2=\frac{4}{15}=152​⋅2=154​

  1. Match with options

415\boxed{\frac{4}{15}}154​​

So the correct option is B.

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