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Probability question

2024 · 4 Apr · Shift 1 · Q42
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  5. /2024 · 4 Apr · Shift 1 · Q42

Probability question

2024 · 4 Apr · Shift 1 · Q42

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Three urns A, B and C contain 7 red, 5 black; 5 red, 7 black and 6 red, 6 black balls, respectively. One of the urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is black, then the probability that it is drawn from urn A\mathrm{A}A is :
  1. A
    417\frac{4}{17}174​
  2. B
    516\frac{5}{16}165​
  3. C
    518\frac{5}{18}185​
  4. D
    718\frac{7}{18}187​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Define events

Let:

  • AAA = urn AAA is selected
  • BBB = urn BBB is selected
  • CCC = urn CCC is selected
  • KKK = the drawn ball is black

Since one urn is selected at random, P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=13.P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=\frac{1}{3}.P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=31​.

  1. Find probability of drawing a black ball from each urn
  • Urn AAA has 777 red and 555 black balls, total 121212. P(K∣A)=512.P(K\mid A)=\frac{5}{12}.P(K∣A)=125​.

  • Urn BBB has 555 red and 777 black balls, total 121212. P(K∣B)=712.P(K\mid B)=\frac{7}{12}.P(K∣B)=127​.

  • Urn CCC has 666 red and 666 black balls, total 121212. P(K∣C)=612=12.P(K\mid C)=\frac{6}{12}=\frac{1}{2}.P(K∣C)=126​=21​.

  1. Find total probability of drawing a black ball

By the law of total probability, P(K)=P(A)P(K∣A)+P(B)P(K∣B)+P(C)P(K∣C).P(K)=P(A)P(K\mid A)+P(B)P(K\mid B)+P(C)P(K\mid C).P(K)=P(A)P(K∣A)+P(B)P(K∣B)+P(C)P(K∣C).

So, P(K)=13⋅512+13⋅712+13⋅12.P(K)=\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{5}{12}+\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{7}{12}+\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{1}{2}.P(K)=31​⋅125​+31​⋅127​+31​⋅21​.

P(K)=\frac{5}{36}+\frac{7}{36}+\frac{1}{6}= rac{12}{36}+\frac{6}{36}=\frac{18}{36}=\frac{1}{2}.

  1. Apply Bayes' theorem

We need P(A∣K)P(A\mid K)P(A∣K): P(A∣K)=P(A)P(K∣A)P(K).P(A\mid K)=\frac{P(A)P(K\mid A)}{P(K)}.P(A∣K)=P(K)P(A)P(K∣A)​.

Substitute values: P(A∣K)=13⋅51212=536⋅2=1036=518.P(A\mid K)=\frac{\frac{1}{3}\cdot\frac{5}{12}}{\frac{1}{2}}=\frac{5}{36}\cdot 2=\frac{10}{36}=\frac{5}{18}.P(A∣K)=21​31​⋅125​​=365​⋅2=3610​=185​.

  1. Match with the options

518\boxed{\frac{5}{18}}185​​ So the correct option is C.

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