- A
- B
- C
- D
View written solutionFree
Correct answer: B
Let the bag contain white balls and black balls, where w=0,1,2,dots,8.
We are told that 4 balls are drawn without replacement, and the observed outcome is:
- 2 white
- 2 black
We need the conditional probability:
1. Prior possibilities for composition of the bag
Since the colours are either white or black, the possible values of are to .
Assuming all compositions are equally likely,
Now the event "2 white and 2 black are drawn" is only possible if the bag has at least 2 white and at least 2 black balls. So only: are relevant.
2. Likelihood of drawing 2 white and 2 black
If the bag has white and black balls, then where is the event of drawing exactly 2 white and 2 black.
Since we compute for each relevant :
Case
Case
Case
Case
Case
3. Apply Bayes' theorem
We want
Since each prior is , they cancel:
So,
Now simplify the denominator: so
Convert to denominator : thus
Hence,
4. Final answer
Therefore, the probability that the bag contains equal numbers of white and black balls is
So the correct option is B.
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