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Probability question

2024 · 1 Feb · Shift 1 · Q31
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  5. /2024 · 1 Feb · Shift 1 · Q31

Probability question

2024 · 1 Feb · Shift 1 · Q31

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A bag contains 8 balls, whose colours are either white or black. 4 balls are drawn at random without replacement and it was found that 2 balls are white and other 2 balls are black. The probability that the bag contains equal number of white and black balls is :
  1. A
    25\frac{2}{5}52​
  2. B
    27\frac{2}{7}72​
  3. C
    17\frac{1}{7}71​
  4. D
    15\frac{1}{5}51​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: B

Let the bag contain www white balls and 8−w8-w8−w black balls, where w=0,1,2,dots,8.

We are told that 4 balls are drawn without replacement, and the observed outcome is:

  • 2 white
  • 2 black

We need the conditional probability: P(w=4∣draw has 2 white and 2 black)P(w=4\mid \text{draw has 2 white and 2 black})P(w=4∣draw has 2 white and 2 black)


1. Prior possibilities for composition of the bag

Since the colours are either white or black, the possible values of www are 000 to 888.

Assuming all compositions are equally likely, P(w=k)=19,k=0,1,2,…,8.P(w=k)=\frac{1}{9}, \qquad k=0,1,2,\dots,8.P(w=k)=91​,k=0,1,2,…,8.

Now the event "2 white and 2 black are drawn" is only possible if the bag has at least 2 white and at least 2 black balls. So only: w=2,3,4,5,6w=2,3,4,5,6w=2,3,4,5,6 are relevant.


2. Likelihood of drawing 2 white and 2 black

If the bag has www white and 8−w8-w8−w black balls, then P(E∣w)=(w2)(8−w2)(84),P(E\mid w)=\frac{\binom{w}{2}\binom{8-w}{2}}{\binom{8}{4}},P(E∣w)=(48​)(2w​)(28−w​)​, where EEE is the event of drawing exactly 2 white and 2 black.

Since (84)=70,\binom{8}{4}=70,(48​)=70, we compute for each relevant www:

Case w=2w=2w=2

P(E∣w=2)=(22)(62)70=1⋅1570=314.P(E\mid w=2)=\frac{\binom{2}{2}\binom{6}{2}}{70}=\frac{1\cdot 15}{70}=\frac{3}{14}.P(E∣w=2)=70(22​)(26​)​=701⋅15​=143​.

Case w=3w=3w=3

P(E∣w=3)=(32)(52)70=3⋅1070=37.P(E\mid w=3)=\frac{\binom{3}{2}\binom{5}{2}}{70}=\frac{3\cdot 10}{70}=\frac{3}{7}.P(E∣w=3)=70(23​)(25​)​=703⋅10​=73​.

Case w=4w=4w=4

P(E∣w=4)=(42)(42)70=6⋅670=1835.P(E\mid w=4)=\frac{\binom{4}{2}\binom{4}{2}}{70}=\frac{6\cdot 6}{70}=\frac{18}{35}.P(E∣w=4)=70(24​)(24​)​=706⋅6​=3518​.

Case w=5w=5w=5

P(E∣w=5)=(52)(32)70=10⋅370=37.P(E\mid w=5)=\frac{\binom{5}{2}\binom{3}{2}}{70}=\frac{10\cdot 3}{70}=\frac{3}{7}.P(E∣w=5)=70(25​)(23​)​=7010⋅3​=73​.

Case w=6w=6w=6

P(E∣w=6)=(62)(22)70=15⋅170=314.P(E\mid w=6)=\frac{\binom{6}{2}\binom{2}{2}}{70}=\frac{15\cdot 1}{70}=\frac{3}{14}.P(E∣w=6)=70(26​)(22​)​=7015⋅1​=143​.


3. Apply Bayes' theorem

We want P(w=4∣E)=P(E∣w=4)P(w=4)∑k=26P(E∣w=k)P(w=k).P(w=4\mid E)=\frac{P(E\mid w=4)P(w=4)}{\sum_{k=2}^{6} P(E\mid w=k)P(w=k)}.P(w=4∣E)=∑k=26​P(E∣w=k)P(w=k)P(E∣w=4)P(w=4)​.

Since each prior is 19\frac{1}{9}91​, they cancel: P(w=4∣E)=P(E∣w=4)P(E∣2)+P(E∣3)+P(E∣4)+P(E∣5)+P(E∣6).P(w=4\mid E)=\frac{P(E\mid w=4)}{P(E\mid 2)+P(E\mid 3)+P(E\mid 4)+P(E\mid 5)+P(E\mid 6)}.P(w=4∣E)=P(E∣2)+P(E∣3)+P(E∣4)+P(E∣5)+P(E∣6)P(E∣w=4)​.

So, P(w=4∣E)=1835314+37+1835+37+314.P(w=4\mid E)=\frac{\frac{18}{35}}{\frac{3}{14}+\frac{3}{7}+\frac{18}{35}+\frac{3}{7}+\frac{3}{14}}.P(w=4∣E)=143​+73​+3518​+73​+143​3518​​.

Now simplify the denominator: 314+314=37,\frac{3}{14}+\frac{3}{14}=\frac{3}{7},143​+143​=73​, so denominator=37+37+1835+37=97+1835.\text{denominator}=\frac{3}{7}+\frac{3}{7}+\frac{18}{35}+\frac{3}{7}=\frac{9}{7}+\frac{18}{35}.denominator=73​+73​+3518​+73​=79​+3518​.

Convert to denominator 353535: 97=4535,\frac{9}{7}=\frac{45}{35},79​=3545​, thus denominator=4535+1835=6335=95.\text{denominator}=\frac{45}{35}+\frac{18}{35}=\frac{63}{35}=\frac{9}{5}.denominator=3545​+3518​=3563​=59​.

Hence, P(w=4∣E)=18356335=1863=27.P(w=4\mid E)=\frac{\frac{18}{35}}{\frac{63}{35}}=\frac{18}{63}=\frac{2}{7}.P(w=4∣E)=3563​3518​​=6318​=72​.


4. Final answer

Therefore, the probability that the bag contains equal numbers of white and black balls is 27.\boxed{\frac{2}{7}}.72​​.

So the correct option is B.

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