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Probability question

2021 · 26 Aug · Shift 2 · Q29
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  5. /2021 · 26 Aug · Shift 2 · Q29

Probability question

2021 · 26 Aug · Shift 2 · Q29

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A fair die is tossed until six is obtained on it. Let x be the number of required tosses, then the conditional probability P(x ≥\ge≥ 5 | x > 2) is :
  1. A
    125216{{125} \over {216}}216125​
  2. B
    1136{{11} \over {36}}3611​
  3. C
    56{{5} \over {6}}65​
  4. D
    2536{{25} \over {36}}3625​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: D

  1. Interpret the random variable

Let XXX be the number of tosses required to get the first six. Then XXX follows a geometric distribution with success probability p=16,p=\frac16,p=61​, and failure probability q=1−p=56.q=1-p=\frac56.q=1−p=65​.

So, P(X=n)=(56)n−1(16),n=1,2,3,…P(X=n)=\left(\frac56\right)^{n-1}\left(\frac16\right), \quad n=1,2,3,\dotsP(X=n)=(65​)n−1(61​),n=1,2,3,…

  1. Write the required conditional probability

We need P(X≥5∣X>2).P(X\ge 5\mid X>2).P(X≥5∣X>2). Using the formula for conditional probability, P(X≥5∣X>2)=P(X≥5∩X>2)P(X>2).P(X\ge 5\mid X>2)=\frac{P(X\ge 5\cap X>2)}{P(X>2)}.P(X≥5∣X>2)=P(X>2)P(X≥5∩X>2)​.

Since X≥5X\ge 5X≥5 automatically implies X>2X>2X>2, we have X≥5∩X>2=X≥5.X\ge 5\cap X>2 = X\ge 5.X≥5∩X>2=X≥5. Therefore, P(X≥5∣X>2)=P(X≥5)P(X>2).P(X\ge 5\mid X>2)=\frac{P(X\ge 5)}{P(X>2)}.P(X≥5∣X>2)=P(X>2)P(X≥5)​.

  1. Compute P(X≥5)P(X\ge 5)P(X≥5)

X≥5X\ge 5X≥5 means no six appears in the first 4 tosses. Thus, P(X≥5)=(56)4=6251296.P(X\ge 5)=\left(\frac56\right)^4=\frac{625}{1296}.P(X≥5)=(65​)4=1296625​.

  1. Compute P(X>2)P(X>2)P(X>2)

X>2X>2X>2 means no six appears in the first 2 tosses. Thus, P(X>2)=(56)2=2536.P(X>2)=\left(\frac56\right)^2=\frac{25}{36}.P(X>2)=(65​)2=3625​.

  1. Find the conditional probability
=\left(\frac56\right)^2 =\frac{25}{36}.$$ 6. **Match with options** $$\frac{25}{36}$$ corresponds to **Option D**. **Final Answer:** $\boxed{\frac{25}{36}}$
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