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Probability question

2007 · Shift 2 · Q8
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  5. /2007 · Shift 2 · Q8

Probability question

2007 · Shift 2 · Q8

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+3 / −1
Let Ec{E^c}Ec denote the complement of an event E.E.E. Let E,F,GE, F, GE,F,G be pairwise independent events with P(G)>0P\left( G \right) \gt 0P(G)>0 and P(E∩F∩G)=0.P\left( {E \cap F \cap G} \right) = 0.P(E∩F∩G)=0. Then P(Ec∩Fc∣G)P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c}|G} \right)P(Ec∩Fc∣G) equals
  1. A
    P(Ec)+P(Fc)P\left( {{E^c}} \right) + P\left( {{F^c}} \right)P(Ec)+P(Fc)
  2. B
    P(Ec)−P(Fc)P\left( {{E^c}} \right) - P\left( {{F^c}} \right)P(Ec)−P(Fc)
  3. C
    P(Ec)−P(F)P\left( {{E^c}} \right) - P\left( F \right)P(Ec)−P(F)
  4. D
    P(E)−P(Fc)P\left( E \right) - P\left( {{F^c}} \right)P(E)−P(Fc)
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

Step-by-step Solution:

  1. Start with the definition of conditional probability. We want to find the value of P(Ec∩Fc∣G)P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c}|G} \right)P(Ec∩Fc∣G). The formula for conditional probability is P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)​. Applying this to our problem, we get: P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=P(Ec∩Fc∩G)P(G)P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c}|G} \right) = \frac{P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c} \cap G} \right)}{P(G)}P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=P(G)P(Ec∩Fc∩G)​ We are given that P(G)>0P(G) > 0P(G)>0, so the denominator is non-zero.

  2. Simplify the numerator using set theory and probability rules. First, we use De Morgan's Law on the term Ec∩Fc{E^c} \cap {F^c}Ec∩Fc, which states that Ec∩Fc=(E∪F)c{E^c} \cap {F^c} = (E \cup F)^cEc∩Fc=(E∪F)c. So, the numerator becomes P((E∪F)c∩G)P\left( {(E \cup F)^c \cap G} \right)P((E∪F)c∩G). Using the property P(Ac∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A^c \cap B) = P(B) - P(A \cap B)P(Ac∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B), we can write: P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)−P((E∪F)∩G)P\left( {(E \cup F)^c \cap G} \right) = P(G) - P\left( {(E \cup F) \cap G} \right)P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)−P((E∪F)∩G)

  3. Expand the term P((E∪F)∩G)P\left( {(E \cup F) \cap G} \right)P((E∪F)∩G). Using the distributive property of set intersection over union, we have (E∪F)∩G=(E∩G)∪(F∩G)(E \cup F) \cap G = (E \cap G) \cup (F \cap G)(E∪F)∩G=(E∩G)∪(F∩G). So, P((E∪F)∩G)=P((E∩G)∪(F∩G))P\left( {(E \cup F) \cap G} \right) = P\left( {(E \cap G) \cup (F \cap G)} \right)P((E∪F)∩G)=P((E∩G)∪(F∩G)). Now, we apply the principle of inclusion-exclusion for two events, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B). P((E∩G)∪(F∩G))=P(E∩G)+P(F∩G)−P((E∩G)∩(F∩G))P\left( {(E \cap G) \cup (F \cap G)} \right) = P(E \cap G) + P(F \cap G) - P\left( {(E \cap G) \cap (F \cap G)} \right)P((E∩G)∪(F∩G))=P(E∩G)+P(F∩G)−P((E∩G)∩(F∩G)) The last term simplifies to P(E∩F∩G)P(E \cap F \cap G)P(E∩F∩G). So, P((E∪F)∩G)=P(E∩G)+P(F∩G)−P(E∩F∩G)P\left( {(E \cup F) \cap G} \right) = P(E \cap G) + P(F \cap G) - P(E \cap F \cap G)P((E∪F)∩G)=P(E∩G)+P(F∩G)−P(E∩F∩G)

  4. Use the given information about the events. We are given that E,F,GE, F, GE,F,G are pairwise independent. This implies:

    • P(E∩G)=P(E)P(G)P(E \cap G) = P(E)P(G)P(E∩G)=P(E)P(G)
    • P(F∩G)=P(F)P(G)P(F \cap G) = P(F)P(G)P(F∩G)=P(F)P(G) We are also given that P(E∩F∩G)=0P(E \cap F \cap G) = 0P(E∩F∩G)=0.
  5. Substitute the given information into the expression. Substituting these into the equation from Step 3: P((E∪F)∩G)=P(E)P(G)+P(F)P(G)−0P\left( {(E \cup F) \cap G} \right) = P(E)P(G) + P(F)P(G) - 0P((E∪F)∩G)=P(E)P(G)+P(F)P(G)−0 P((E∪F)∩G)=P(G)(P(E)+P(F))P\left( {(E \cup F) \cap G} \right) = P(G) \left( {P(E) + P(F)} \right)P((E∪F)∩G)=P(G)(P(E)+P(F))

  6. Calculate the numerator P(Ec∩Fc∩G)P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c} \cap G} \right)P(Ec∩Fc∩G). From Step 2, we have P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)−P((E∪F)∩G)P\left( {(E \cup F)^c \cap G} \right) = P(G) - P\left( {(E \cup F) \cap G} \right)P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)−P((E∪F)∩G). Substituting the result from Step 5: P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)−P(G)(P(E)+P(F))P\left( {(E \cup F)^c \cap G} \right) = P(G) - P(G) \left( {P(E) + P(F)} \right)P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)−P(G)(P(E)+P(F)) P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)(1−P(E)−P(F))P\left( {(E \cup F)^c \cap G} \right) = P(G) \left( {1 - P(E) - P(F)} \right)P((E∪F)c∩G)=P(G)(1−P(E)−P(F))

  7. Calculate the final conditional probability. Now we substitute this back into the formula from Step 1: P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=P(G)(1−P(E)−P(F))P(G)P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c}|G} \right) = \frac{P(G) \left( {1 - P(E) - P(F)} \right)}{P(G)}P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=P(G)P(G)(1−P(E)−P(F))​ Since P(G)>0P(G) > 0P(G)>0, we can cancel P(G)P(G)P(G) from the numerator and denominator: P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=1−P(E)−P(F)P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c}|G} \right) = 1 - P(E) - P(F)P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=1−P(E)−P(F)

  8. Match the result with the given options. We know that the probability of a complement event is P(Ec)=1−P(E)P(E^c) = 1 - P(E)P(Ec)=1−P(E). Substituting this into our result: P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=P(Ec)−P(F)P\left( {{E^c} \cap {F^c}|G} \right) = P(E^c) - P(F)P(Ec∩Fc∣G)=P(Ec)−P(F) This matches option C.

Alternative Approach:

Consider the probability space conditioned on G. Let PG(A)=P(A∣G)P_G(A) = P(A|G)PG​(A)=P(A∣G). We want to find PG(Ec∩Fc)P_G(E^c \cap F^c)PG​(Ec∩Fc).

  1. Since E and G are independent, PG(E)=P(E∣G)=P(E∩G)P(G)=P(E)P(G)P(G)=P(E)P_G(E) = P(E|G) = \frac{P(E \cap G)}{P(G)} = \frac{P(E)P(G)}{P(G)} = P(E)PG​(E)=P(E∣G)=P(G)P(E∩G)​=P(G)P(E)P(G)​=P(E).
  2. Similarly, since F and G are independent, PG(F)=P(F∣G)=P(F)P_G(F) = P(F|G) = P(F)PG​(F)=P(F∣G)=P(F).
  3. Given P(E∩F∩G)=0P(E \cap F \cap G) = 0P(E∩F∩G)=0, we have PG(E∩F)=P(E∩F∣G)=P(E∩F∩G)P(G)=0P(G)=0P_G(E \cap F) = P(E \cap F | G) = \frac{P(E \cap F \cap G)}{P(G)} = \frac{0}{P(G)} = 0PG​(E∩F)=P(E∩F∣G)=P(G)P(E∩F∩G)​=P(G)0​=0.
  4. This means that in the conditioned space, events E and F are mutually exclusive.
  5. We need to find PG(Ec∩Fc)=PG((E∪F)c)=1−PG(E∪F)P_G(E^c \cap F^c) = P_G((E \cup F)^c) = 1 - P_G(E \cup F)PG​(Ec∩Fc)=PG​((E∪F)c)=1−PG​(E∪F).
  6. PG(E∪F)=PG(E)+PG(F)−PG(E∩F)=P(E)+P(F)−0=P(E)+P(F)P_G(E \cup F) = P_G(E) + P_G(F) - P_G(E \cap F) = P(E) + P(F) - 0 = P(E) + P(F)PG​(E∪F)=PG​(E)+PG​(F)−PG​(E∩F)=P(E)+P(F)−0=P(E)+P(F).
  7. Therefore, PG(Ec∩Fc)=1−(P(E)+P(F))=1−P(E)−P(F)P_G(E^c \cap F^c) = 1 - (P(E) + P(F)) = 1 - P(E) - P(F)PG​(Ec∩Fc)=1−(P(E)+P(F))=1−P(E)−P(F).
  8. Rewriting this, we get (1−P(E))−P(F)=P(Ec)−P(F)(1 - P(E)) - P(F) = P(E^c) - P(F)(1−P(E))−P(F)=P(Ec)−P(F). This confirms the previous result.
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