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Probability question

2024 · Shift 1 · Q30
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Probability question

2024 · Shift 1 · Q30

JEE AdvancedMathematicsProbabilityNumerical+4 / −1
Let XXX be a random variable, and let P(X=x)P(X=x)P(X=x) denote the probability that XXX takes the value xxx. Suppose that the points (x,P(X=x)),x=0,1,2,3,4(x, P(X=x)), x=0,1,2,3,4(x,P(X=x)),x=0,1,2,3,4, lie on a fixed straight line in the xyx yxy-plane, and P(X=x)=0P(X=x)=0P(X=x)=0 for all x∈R−{0,1,2,3,4}x \in \mathbb{R}-\{0,1,2,3,4\}x∈R−{0,1,2,3,4}. If the mean of XXX is 52\frac{5}{2}25​, and the variance of XXX is α\alphaα, then the value of 24α24 \alpha24α is ‾\underline{\hspace{2cm}}​.
Numerical answer
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: 42

  1. Set up the probability mass function

Since the points (x,P(X=x))\bigl(x, P(X=x)\bigr)(x,P(X=x)) for x=0,1,2,3,4x=0,1,2,3,4x=0,1,2,3,4 lie on a straight line, let

P(X=x)=ax+b,x=0,1,2,3,4.P(X=x)=ax+b, \qquad x=0,1,2,3,4.P(X=x)=ax+b,x=0,1,2,3,4.

Also, P(X=x)=0P(X=x)=0P(X=x)=0 for all other real xxx.

So the probabilities are:

P(0)=b,P(1)=a+b,P(2)=2a+b,P(3)=3a+b,P(4)=4a+b.P(0)=b,\quad P(1)=a+b,\quad P(2)=2a+b,\quad P(3)=3a+b,\quad P(4)=4a+b.P(0)=b,P(1)=a+b,P(2)=2a+b,P(3)=3a+b,P(4)=4a+b.


  1. Use the total probability condition

Since probabilities sum to 111,

∑x=04P(X=x)=1.\sum_{x=0}^4 P(X=x)=1.∑x=04​P(X=x)=1.

Thus,

b+(a+b)+(2a+b)+(3a+b)+(4a+b)=1.b+(a+b)+(2a+b)+(3a+b)+(4a+b)=1.b+(a+b)+(2a+b)+(3a+b)+(4a+b)=1.

10a+5b=1. \tag{1}


  1. Use the mean condition

Given E(X)=52E(X)=\dfrac{5}{2}E(X)=25​,

∑x=04xP(X=x)=52.\sum_{x=0}^4 xP(X=x)=\frac{5}{2}.∑x=04​xP(X=x)=25​.

So,

0⋅b+1(a+b)+2(2a+b)+3(3a+b)+4(4a+b)=52.0\cdot b+1(a+b)+2(2a+b)+3(3a+b)+4(4a+b)=\frac{5}{2}.0⋅b+1(a+b)+2(2a+b)+3(3a+b)+4(4a+b)=25​.

Simplifying,

(1+4+9+16)a+(1+2+3+4)b=52 (1+4+9+16)a + (1+2+3+4)b = \frac{5}{2}(1+4+9+16)a+(1+2+3+4)b=25​

30a+10b=\frac{5}{2}. \tag{2}

Multiply (2) by 222:

60a+20b=5 \implies 6a+2b=\frac12. \tag{3}

From (1):

10a+5b=1 \implies 2a+b=\frac15. \tag{4}

Now subtract twice (4) from (3):

6a+2b−(4a+2b)=12−256a+2b-(4a+2b)=\frac12-\frac256a+2b−(4a+2b)=21​−52​

2a=110  ⟹  a=120.2a=\frac{1}{10} \implies a=\frac{1}{20}.2a=101​⟹a=201​.

Then from (4):

2(120)+b=152\left(\frac{1}{20}\right)+b=\frac152(201​)+b=51​

110+b=15  ⟹  b=110.\frac{1}{10}+b=\frac15 \implies b=\frac{1}{10}.101​+b=51​⟹b=101​.

Hence,

P(X=x)=x20+110=x+220,x=0,1,2,3,4.P(X=x)=\frac{x}{20}+\frac{1}{10} = \frac{x+2}{20}, \qquad x=0,1,2,3,4.P(X=x)=20x​+101​=20x+2​,x=0,1,2,3,4.

So,

P(0)=220,  P(1)=320,  P(2)=420,  P(3)=520,  P(4)=620.P(0)=\frac{2}{20},\; P(1)=\frac{3}{20},\; P(2)=\frac{4}{20},\; P(3)=\frac{5}{20},\; P(4)=\frac{6}{20}.P(0)=202​,P(1)=203​,P(2)=204​,P(3)=205​,P(4)=206​.


  1. Compute E(X2)E(X^2)E(X2)

E(X2)=∑x=04x2P(X=x).E(X^2)=\sum_{x=0}^4 x^2 P(X=x).E(X2)=∑x=04​x2P(X=x).

Thus,

E(X2)=02⋅220+12⋅320+22⋅420+32⋅520+42⋅620.E(X^2)=0^2\cdot\frac{2}{20}+1^2\cdot\frac{3}{20}+2^2\cdot\frac{4}{20}+3^2\cdot\frac{5}{20}+4^2\cdot\frac{6}{20}.E(X2)=02⋅202​+12⋅203​+22⋅204​+32⋅205​+42⋅206​.

E(X2)=0+320+1620+4520+9620.E(X^2)=0+\frac{3}{20}+\frac{16}{20}+\frac{45}{20}+\frac{96}{20}.E(X2)=0+203​+2016​+2045​+2096​.

E(X2)=16020=8.E(X^2)=\frac{160}{20}=8.E(X2)=20160​=8.


  1. Compute the variance

Var⁡(X)=E(X2)−[E(X)]2.\operatorname{Var}(X)=E(X^2)-[E(X)]^2.Var(X)=E(X2)−[E(X)]2.

So,

α=8−(52)2=8−254=32−254=74.\alpha=8-\left(\frac52\right)^2=8-\frac{25}{4}=\frac{32-25}{4}=\frac{7}{4}.α=8−(25​)2=8−425​=432−25​=47​.


  1. Find 24α24\alpha24α

24α=24⋅74=6⋅7=42.24\alpha=24\cdot\frac74=6\cdot 7=42.24α=24⋅47​=6⋅7=42.


Final Answer

24α=4224\alpha=4224α=42

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