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Probability question

2024 · 30 Jan · Shift 2 · Q49
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  5. /2024 · 30 Jan · Shift 2 · Q49

Probability question

2024 · 30 Jan · Shift 2 · Q49

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
Bag A contains 3 white, 7 red balls and Bag B contains 3 white, 2 red balls. One bag is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. The probability of drawing the ball from the bag A, if the ball drawn is white, is
  1. A
    1/4
  2. B
    1/3
  3. C
    3/10
  4. D
    1/9
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: B

  1. Define the events

Let:

  • AAA = event that Bag A is selected
  • BBB = event that Bag B is selected
  • WWW = event that the drawn ball is white

Since one bag is selected at random, P(A)=P(B)=12.P(A)=P(B)=\frac{1}{2}.P(A)=P(B)=21​.

  1. Find the probability of drawing a white ball from each bag
  • Bag A has 333 white and 777 red balls, so total 101010 balls. P(W∣A)=310.P(W\mid A)=\frac{3}{10}.P(W∣A)=103​.

  • Bag B has 333 white and 222 red balls, so total 555 balls. P(W∣B)=35.P(W\mid B)=\frac{3}{5}.P(W∣B)=53​.

  1. Use Bayes' theorem

We need: P(A∣W)=P(A)P(W∣A)P(A)P(W∣A)+P(B)P(W∣B).P(A\mid W)=\frac{P(A)P(W\mid A)}{P(A)P(W\mid A)+P(B)P(W\mid B)}.P(A∣W)=P(A)P(W∣A)+P(B)P(W∣B)P(A)P(W∣A)​.

Substitute the values: P(A∣W)=12⋅31012⋅310+12⋅35.P(A\mid W)=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{3}{10}}{\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{3}{10}+\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{3}{5}}.P(A∣W)=21​⋅103​+21​⋅53​21​⋅103​​.

  1. Simplify

Numerator: 12⋅310=320.\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{3}{10}=\frac{3}{20}.21​⋅103​=203​.

Denominator: 320+12⋅35=320+310.\frac{3}{20}+\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{3}{5}=\frac{3}{20}+\frac{3}{10}.203​+21​⋅53​=203​+103​.

Now, 310=620,\frac{3}{10}=\frac{6}{20},103​=206​, so denominator becomes 320+620=920.\frac{3}{20}+\frac{6}{20}=\frac{9}{20}.203​+206​=209​.

Thus, P(A∣W)=320920=39=13.P(A\mid W)=\frac{\frac{3}{20}}{\frac{9}{20}}=\frac{3}{9}=\frac{1}{3}.P(A∣W)=209​203​​=93​=31​.

  1. Match with the options

13\boxed{\frac{1}{3}}31​​ So the correct option is B.

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