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Probability question

2022 · 27 Jul · Shift 2 · Q33
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  5. /2022 · 27 Jul · Shift 2 · Q33

Probability question

2022 · 27 Jul · Shift 2 · Q33

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
A six faced die is biased such that 3×P(3 \times \mathrm{P}(3×P( a prime number ) =6×P()\,=6 \times \mathrm{P}()=6×P( a composite number ) =2×P(1))\,=2 \times \mathrm{P}(1))=2×P(1). Let X be a random variable that counts the number of times one gets a perfect square on some throws of this die. If the die is thrown twice, then the mean of X is :
  1. A
    311\frac{3}{11}113​
  2. B
    511\frac{5}{11}115​
  3. C
    711\frac{7}{11}117​
  4. D
    811\frac{8}{11}118​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: THE GIVEN QUESTION SEEMS INCONSISTENT AS WRITTEN. USING THE STATED RELATION, $P(\TEXT{PERFECT SQUARE})=P(1)+P(4)=\FRAC{1}{2}+\FRAC{1}{12}=\FRAC{7}{12}$, SO FOR TWO THROWS $E[X]=2\CDOT\FRAC{7}{12}=\FRAC{7}{6}$., THUS THE STORED ANSWER $\FRAC{8}{11}$ DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE MATHEMATICS OF THE GIVEN STATEMENT.

  1. Classify the outcomes on a die

A standard die has faces {1,2,3,4,5,6}\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}{1,2,3,4,5,6}.

  • Prime numbers: {2,3,5}\{2,3,5\}{2,3,5}
  • Composite numbers: {4,6}\{4,6\}{4,6}
  • Number 111: separate category

Perfect squares on the die are: 1,41,41,4

So if XXX counts the number of times a perfect square appears in 2 throws, then XXX is the number of successes in 2 independent trials, where success = getting 111 or 444.


  1. Use the given probability relation

Given: 3 P(prime)=6 P(composite)=2 P(1)3\,P(\text{prime}) = 6\,P(\text{composite}) = 2\,P(1)3P(prime)=6P(composite)=2P(1)

Let the common value be kkk. Then 3P(prime)=k⇒P(prime)=k33P(\text{prime})=k \Rightarrow P(\text{prime})=\frac{k}{3}3P(prime)=k⇒P(prime)=3k​ 6P(composite)=k⇒P(composite)=k66P(\text{composite})=k \Rightarrow P(\text{composite})=\frac{k}{6}6P(composite)=k⇒P(composite)=6k​ 2P(1)=k⇒P(1)=k22P(1)=k \Rightarrow P(1)=\frac{k}{2}2P(1)=k⇒P(1)=2k​

Since these three categories exhaust all outcomes, P(prime)+P(composite)+P(1)=1P(\text{prime})+P(\text{composite})+P(1)=1P(prime)+P(composite)+P(1)=1

So, k3+k6+k2=1\frac{k}{3}+\frac{k}{6}+\frac{k}{2}=13k​+6k​+2k​=1 Taking LCM 666, 2k+k+3k6=1\frac{2k+k+3k}{6}=162k+k+3k​=1 6k6=1\frac{6k}{6}=166k​=1 k=1k=1k=1

Hence, P(prime)=13,P(composite)=16,P(1)=12P(\text{prime})=\frac{1}{3}, \quad P(\text{composite})=\frac{1}{6}, \quad P(1)=\frac{1}{2}P(prime)=31​,P(composite)=61​,P(1)=21​


  1. Find probability of a perfect square in one throw

Perfect squares are 111 and 444.

We already have: P(1)=12P(1)=\frac{1}{2}P(1)=21​

Among composite numbers {4,6}\{4,6\}{4,6}, assuming outcomes within the category retain their individual face probabilities proportional only through category totals is not needed here if interpreted as category probabilities induced by the biased die over the standard faces. Since composite numbers are 444 and 666, and no further distinction is given, we take the natural symmetric split within the composite category: P(4)=P(6)=112P(4)=P(6)=\frac{1}{12}P(4)=P(6)=121​ because P(composite)=P(4)+P(6)=16P(\text{composite})=P(4)+P(6)=\frac{1}{6}P(composite)=P(4)+P(6)=61​

Therefore, P(perfect square)=P(1)+P(4)=12+112=712P(\text{perfect square})=P(1)+P(4)=\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{12}=\frac{7}{12}P(perfect square)=P(1)+P(4)=21​+121​=127​


  1. Find the mean of XXX

Since the die is thrown twice, and each throw is independent, X∼Binomial(n=2,p=712)X \sim \text{Binomial}(n=2, p=\tfrac{7}{12})X∼Binomial(n=2,p=127​)

The mean of a binomial random variable is: E[X]=npE[X]=npE[X]=np

Thus, E[X]=2⋅712=76E[X]=2\cdot \frac{7}{12}=\frac{7}{6}E[X]=2⋅127​=67​

This is not among the options, so let us instead interpret the intended probability assignment facewise from the relation.


  1. Facewise probability assignment

Let each prime face have probability ppp, each composite face have probability qqq, and face 111 have probability rrr. Then: P(prime)=3p,P(composite)=2q,P(1)=rP(\text{prime})=3p, \quad P(\text{composite})=2q, \quad P(1)=rP(prime)=3p,P(composite)=2q,P(1)=r

Given: 3P(prime)=6P(composite)=2P(1)3P(\text{prime})=6P(\text{composite})=2P(1)3P(prime)=6P(composite)=2P(1) 3(3p)=6(2q)=2r3(3p)=6(2q)=2r3(3p)=6(2q)=2r 9p=12q=2r9p=12q=2r9p=12q=2r

Let the common value be ttt: 9p=t,12q=t,2r=t9p=t, \quad 12q=t, \quad 2r=t9p=t,12q=t,2r=t p=t9,q=t12,r=t2p=\frac{t}{9}, \quad q=\frac{t}{12}, \quad r=\frac{t}{2}p=9t​,q=12t​,r=2t​

Now total probability is 1: 3p+2q+r=13p+2q+r=13p+2q+r=1 3⋅t9+2⋅t12+t2=13\cdot\frac{t}{9}+2\cdot\frac{t}{12}+\frac{t}{2}=13⋅9t​+2⋅12t​+2t​=1 t3+t6+t2=1\frac{t}{3}+\frac{t}{6}+\frac{t}{2}=13t​+6t​+2t​=1 2t+t+3t6=1\frac{2t+t+3t}{6}=162t+t+3t​=1 t=1t=1t=1

So, p=19,q=112,r=12p=\frac{1}{9}, \quad q=\frac{1}{12}, \quad r=\frac{1}{2}p=91​,q=121​,r=21​

Then P(perfect square)=P(1)+P(4)=12+112=712P(\text{perfect square})=P(1)+P(4)=\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{12}=\frac{7}{12}P(perfect square)=P(1)+P(4)=21​+121​=127​ Again, E[X]=2⋅712=76E[X]=2\cdot\frac{7}{12}=\frac{7}{6}E[X]=2⋅127​=67​

This still does not match the options.


  1. Check the option pattern

All options are of the form ⋅11\frac{\cdot}{11}11⋅​, suggesting the intended relation may have led to P(perfect square)=411P(\text{perfect square})=\frac{4}{11}P(perfect square)=114​ so that E[X]=2⋅411=811E[X]=2\cdot\frac{4}{11}=\frac{8}{11}E[X]=2⋅114​=118​ which matches option D.

However, from the given statement as written, the mathematically derived mean is 76\boxed{\frac{7}{6}}67​​ which is not present in the options.

Therefore, the stored answer appears inconsistent with the stated question.

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