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Probability question

2004 · Shift 0 · Q90
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Probability question

2004 · Shift 0 · Q90

JEE MainMathematicsProbabilityMCQ+4 / −1
The probability that AAA speaks truth is 45,{4 \over 5},54​, while the probability for BBB is 34.{3 \over 4}.43​. The probability that they contradict each other when asked to speak on a fact is :
  1. A
    45{4 \over 5}54​
  2. B
    15{1 \over 5}51​
  3. C
    720{7 \over 20}207​
  4. D
    320{3 \over 20}203​
View written solutionFree

Correct answer: C

  1. Let the event that AAA speaks truth be TAT_ATA​ and that BBB speaks truth be TBT_BTB​.

    Given: P(TA)=45,P(TB)=34P(T_A)=\frac{4}{5}, \qquad P(T_B)=\frac{3}{4}P(TA​)=54​,P(TB​)=43​

    So, probabilities of lying are: P(LA)=1−45=15,P(LB)=1−34=14P(L_A)=1-\frac{4}{5}=\frac{1}{5}, \qquad P(L_B)=1-\frac{3}{4}=\frac{1}{4}P(LA​)=1−54​=51​,P(LB​)=1−43​=41​

  2. They will contradict each other on a fact only in the following two cases:

    • AAA tells truth and BBB lies
    • AAA lies and BBB tells truth
  3. Assuming their statements are independent, the required probability is: P(TA∩LB)+P(LA∩TB)P(T_A \cap L_B) + P(L_A \cap T_B)P(TA​∩LB​)+P(LA​∩TB​)

  4. Compute each term: P(TA∩LB)=45⋅14=15P(T_A \cap L_B)=\frac{4}{5}\cdot\frac{1}{4}=\frac{1}{5}P(TA​∩LB​)=54​⋅41​=51​ P(LA∩TB)=15⋅34=320P(L_A \cap T_B)=\frac{1}{5}\cdot\frac{3}{4}=\frac{3}{20}P(LA​∩TB​)=51​⋅43​=203​

  5. Add them: 15+320=420+320=720\frac{1}{5}+\frac{3}{20}=\frac{4}{20}+\frac{3}{20}=\frac{7}{20}51​+203​=204​+203​=207​

  6. Therefore, the probability that they contradict each other is: 720\boxed{\frac{7}{20}}207​​

  7. Option check:

    • A: 45\frac{4}{5}54​ ✗
    • B: 15\frac{1}{5}51​ ✗
    • C: 720\frac{7}{20}207​ ✓
    • D: 320\frac{3}{20}203​ ✗
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